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This is the most obvious title out there. Anyone who thinks that Iran's regime will fall WHILE Israel is bombing it clearly never spent time living in or growing up in a "rogue nation." Jeeeeebus. Come on people. reuters.com/world/middle-e…

This is actually a very fair statement. Got to give props when they are due. Well done. reuters.com/world/middle-e…

If the US and Israel want regime change, they would both declare VICTORY and move on. Let the people of Iran have a period during which they can sift through the rubble and balance the books. Nobody revolts when they're circling the wagons. I can't believe this is not obvious.

The new GEOCousins has dropped! We delay the Trade Value episode due to Iran-Israel tensions. But this monster had a lot, including a proposal for the Concert of Mar-a-Lago! Big thank you to Cousin jacob l. shapiro as always for putting up with my rants. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/geo…

Very bond bullish, if true.

Big thank you to my dear friend Ceyhun Emre Doğru and CNBC Turkiye! Love the long-form interview!

What an absolute BANGER of a chart by my colleague and friend (and basketball fantasy league co-owner) Juan Correa-Ossa! Instead of "Exodus," I wish I had come up with the "GTFO Trade".

How bad is the housing affordability crisis? Among new homebuyers, mortgage payments are higher today than in 2007. The only way this problem will resolve is if either home prices fall significantly or mortgage rates plunge. Neither is likely outside of a recession.

Hey ⁦⁦⁦⁦⁦Elon Musk⁩ a simple way to cut back on the bots would be to classify as probable spam any reply that has the same profile photo as the author’s.

US equites are the same here: it’s the inverse of the Euro I’ve made a little money trading this — short at 3:45PM, buy at 4AM — because it’s happening literally every single day. But it’s just so orthogonal to my views of how stocks trade Ex US investors want out though

The US dollar has been more oversold in the past than it is today, but it is still quite stretched to the downside. I know the bearish dollar arguments, but I think they apply more to the longer term than the next year. I'm still betting on a DXY rally.

Steepeners still have room to run. Fed caution on inflation is keeping front-end yields elevated despite weakening labor data, while the long end is pressured by term premium and outflows.

Trump’s renewed attacks on Powell raise the risk of an early Fed nomination. An early, dovish pick would create rates volatility by injecting conflicting signals into the policy outlook. Dual messaging would muddy the waters. The White House may want loyalty, but markets (and

There is a hierarchy to how Iran retaliates: 1. US bases in Iraq. I'd say no US response, ala Jan 2020. 2. US bases in Qatar and Bahrain. Moderate US response. Things settle down eventually. 3. Strait of Hormuz. US goes medieval, Iran becomes a feudal state.

🚨 Insight from Matt Gertken on Bloomberg regarding the Iran crisis and its potential impact on the oil market: “I think they would first start to derail oil production in Iraq and see where that goes. Does that signal to the Americans that they need to reduce their commitment to

The "oil shock" caused by escalating conflict in the middle east could still be a month away, says BCA Research's @MGertken He breaks down the energy market's shrugging reaction to the weekend's events and what comes next: cnb.cx/3HSpNsC

While others are zigging, BCA's MacroQuant model is zagging. The model's US equity z-score just fell below -1.0, a level that has reliably predicted equity bear markets in the past. Clients: Please be on the lookout for our Third Quarter Strategy Outlook, set to be published

🌏 Who’s most exposed to an oil shock? Our EM & China Strategist Arthur Budaghyan was quoted in Barron's on which economies are best positioned to absorb higher energy prices. His view: 🛡️ China’s large current-account surplus offers protection against rising oil costs.

📉 Tariffs make headlines... but immigration may leave deeper economic scars! Our Chief Counterpoint Strategist Counterpoint Dhaval Joshi was quoted in Financial Times on why US growth could suffer more from labor shortages than trade tensions. His view: 👷‍♂️ Post-Covid excess retirements have left the

President Trump claims ceasefire b/t Israel and Iran. Here is hoping they abide by it and Iran discloses full program and abandons all uranium enrichment. Or maybe Iran will reserve their real retaliation for some future date when they aren’t cornered … say, October 2028!