Listening to Caro’s LBJ series on auto book right now. LBJ just finished college. Some preliminary notes on a series variously described as greatest biography ever written, greatest narrative nonfiction ever written, etc.

Notable philosophy/aspiration from new MP Matthew Patrick MP: "My commitment is to listen in good faith to arguments made in good faith...to change my mind when it is right to do so. And...to stand up for the things I believe in so that others might do the same." HT Ian Leslie

Super interesting review. Looking forward to the book. The limits of Riverian-ness is a most excellent topic for Riverians.

Predicting college football is a great forecasting challenge. Of all the stuff Rufus and I have worked on over the years, this sim is our favorite tool, and an essential one for that challenge. Great fun working with Rufus, Jake & Unabated making it public.

Great outcome. Isn't much fun enforcing community norms, so most folks don't bother. Which, turns out, ain't great for community norms. These guys have bothered and social science is better because of it.

Fantastic look at the relationship between the Ravens and Orioles. "Sharp" organizations aren't just smart, but collaborative. Neat for it to show up this way. DeCosta and Mejdal are the best. nytimes.com/athletic/57124…

Ensemble your forecasts, people. Oh, look who's sitting there at the top. ;)

Worth a RT, worth a listen, obviously Ethan is worth a follow. Holy smokes.

Conference races, and the G5 fight, beginning to take shape. Whole playoff field likely coming from these 28. HT Unabated Rufus

How college football's first 12-team playoff is shaping up after 4 weeks (HT Unabated' Rufus):

A rare week without a show so a little something to tide you over. Our de facto in-house CFB model this year is a "Rufus Blend" of analytics rankings, pushed through Unabated' simulator. Not sure you can do much better than that. Where we are now:

If you think Texas currently giving 3.5 points to Georgia is a little rich, this ensemble makes Texas -4.7 (+30.8 vs. +26.1) *on a neutral field* . How much is DKR worth Saturday night?

"Life is a series of narratives -- all false -- learned and then unlearned." ambientehotel.wordpress.com/2024/10/10/age… HT Alan Jacobs

We've lived the same story. Great piece. Great example.

You want to nerd out, I'm your guy.

The Teagan Effect: When your softball-playing niece braids her hair for the first time. Good stuff teagan kavan Texas Softball.

Terrific story on KU QB Jalon Daniels, probably *the* headliner in tomorrow's CFB kickoff game. Part of The Athletic's cool new effort called Peak, on what we can learn about personal development from sports (HT Jayson Jenks). Bruce Feldman kills it. nytimes.com/athletic/65671…