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unless oil supply is structurally and persistently impaired, conflict-driven shocks tend to be mean reverting over the past 50+ years via Ziad Daoud

Fesharaki is right. So far, Israelis have avoided attacking important energy infrastructure in Iran: Kharg Island, petchems plants, etc. Attack on minor energy infra is just a deliberate hint of what could happen if things escalate. Market still shrugging off that risk. #OOTT

Iran IAEA Rep: "The decision to withdraw or not from the NPT (Nuclear Weapons Non-Proliferation Treaty) depends on future developments, and the responsibility for any action taken to withdraw from the treaty lies with Israel." irna.ir/xjTR3H

WSJ: “Tehran has told Arab officials they would be open to return to the negotiating table as long as the U.S. doesn’t join the attack, the officials said.”

Mitsubishi is in advanced talks to buy Aethon Energy for close to $8 billion, sources say, in what would be the Japanese conglomerate’s biggest ever acquisition bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

According to a U.S. official who spoke earlier to i24News, “It was a crazy night in Washington - everyone was working in the White House and the Pentagon. This may really be the Iranians' last chance before the U.S. actively joins in.”

BREAKING: Trump wants "a real end" to the nuclear problem with Iran and this morning will find him in the White House Situation Room, monitoring developments in Middle East, he told us during his midnight departure from Canada. "I didn't say I was looking for a ceasefire," he

All signs point one way

Quite a big gap between OPEC and IEA views.

Not looking good for wind and solar energy tax credits. The rapid phase-out of 45V is a little surprising to me. nytimes.com/2025/06/16/cli…

For #Israel to attack #Iran including its nuclear facilities (prohibited by international law) and for #Trump to ask Iran for “total surrender” and forgo a treaty right (uranium enrichment) in a clear act of national humiliation, on suspicion that it is developing nuclear weapons

My latest for Financial Times From Iran-Contra to '03 US invasion of Iraq, and feeding of millions of $ to Hamas, Netanyahu has consistently advocated policy options that make everything worse + He can start wars but doesn't know how to end them. ft.com/content/8d75ba…

The Trump administration and Congress aim to rescind or substantially weaken three key programs to cut methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. How will the industry respond? New Energy Pathways memo on #methane regulations. ceesa.utexas.edu/energy-pathway…

Why? Coal was soundly beaten by cleaner, abundant domestic energy sources, producing an incredible 36% decline in CO2 emissions from the electric power sector between 2005 and 2022. Take the win, guys! (BTW coal was hardly "on a leash." The market chose gas and renewables).

I have a feeling the “TACO” thing got under Trump’s skin.

Me in Axios yesterday on the market again shrugging off geopolitical risk. axios.com/newsletters/ax…

It’s been a frantic few weeks. The Iran–Israel conflict raised fears that Tehran might shut the Strait of Hormuz. In this BBC World Service #BusinessDaily, I explore how that threat impacted oil, trade & Gulf diplomacy. 🎧Podcast bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/p… Ben Cahill

US Senate budget bill slashes money to fill oil reserve The budget bill slashed the amount of money for crude oil purchases to replenish the SPR to $171 million from $1.3 billion. That's only enough to buy about 3 million barrels instead of 20 million barrels at today's prices.

So Zelensky did everything Trump asked him to do, signed away mineral rights, agreed to an unconditional ceasefire, and the U.S. still cut off previously funded weapons supplies, leaving Ukrainian cities defenseless against Russian missile strikes. A lesson to all here.

"While discussions in western capitals depict Iran as a spent force, the country will remain a threat to its neighbours and at the centre of conversations across the Middle East for years to come." - Emile Hokayem ft.com/content/67e67a…