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Fed Chair Powell summary: 1) No rate cuts this summer. Maybe September 2) US economy is in "solid shape," but tariff impacts expected later this summer/fall. 3) 3%+ inflation likely coming soon. That's why Fed is on hold for now. 4) Overall, "It feels much more positive and

Close to 70% of U.S. consumers think there will be a recession in the next year, according to the The Conference Board release today. Economists put the odds at about 30 to 35%. It's interesting that on "Main Street," fears of a recession have remained high, even as trade tensions

Toy inflation is at an all-time high, as new tariffs kick in washingtonpost.com/business/2025/…

The final measure of US Q1 GDP came in at -0.5% -->worse than expected. Take a look at consumer spending. It turned out to be a look weaker than initially thought. That's worth watching. It's a similar story with "real final sales to private domestic purchasers," another key

Companies are paying people MORE MONEY TO STAY in a job than they are to new hires. This is highly unusual. Normally "job switches" (aka new hires) get the big pay bumps. But that's not happening right now in the "Great Stay" economy. Since February, job stayers have gotten

The S&P 500 came within an inch of setting a new all-time high today. S&P 500 closed at 6,141.02 --> just under the Feb. 19 closing high of 6,144.15 Stock investors continue to believe: -trade tensions will ease -geopolitical concerns will ease -US companies can make $$ in

Inflation came in fairly mild in May. PCE inflation ticked up only 0.1% in May to an annual rate of 2.3% (up from 2.2% in April). We're all waiting for more signs of tariffs raising prices, but it's been mild so far. The bigger surprise? Personal incomes and consumption FELL

Trump says he thinks the Fed should set interest rates at 1%. He also says he won't consider anyone for Fed chair who supports holding rates where they are. "Whoever is in there will lower rates." On Powell's successor: "I'm going to put somebody that wants to cut rates."

The White House says President Trump sent this note to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. It reads: “You are, as usual, ‘too late.’”

What a wild start to 2025 in markets S&P 500 closes at a record high. It's up 5.7% this year after roaring back from almost hitting a bear market in April. But...the US dollar just had its worst start since 1973. The dollar is slumping (and fell again today) as global investors

Big jump in job openings in May: 7.77 million. That's the highest since November and well above expectations. (April saw 7.4 million job openings) Hiring is still slow. Hiring rate was 3.4% in May. Hiring has been stuck at unusually low levels for over a year. But there's hope

Smart move from Fed Chair Powell to keep all options open. It seems unlikely we'll get a July rate cut unless the jobs report really deteriorates. But Fed shouldn't get locked in.

I am massively oversimplifying here, so free to yell at me, but doing my best w/ imperfect information here is roughly how I'd try to break down the massive Senate tax bill to a friend: 1. Extending/increasing prior GOP tax cuts w/ broad reach (larger standard deduction; raises

For the few years I've been covering jobs reports, and one sector typically rises above the rest, quietly hiring by the thousands: Health care. How taking care of humans became the biggest employer in America, and what it means for the rest of us. nytimes.com/interactive/20…

JUST IN: A better-than-expected June jobs report The US economy added 147,000 jobs in June, well above expectations for ~110k. April and May were revised up by a combined 16,000. The unemployment rate declined to 4.1% (down from 4.2% for the past few months) Wages rose 3.7% in

Notable: The 147,000 job gains in June were almost all (over 75%) in healthcare and government. Government: +73,000 Healthcare: +39,000 The government job gains looked like this: State gov't education +40,000 State gov't non-education +7,000 Local gov't education +23,000 Local

This is a weaker jobs report if you look at private sector (non-gov't) hiring. The private sector only added 74,000 jobs in June (Mainly in healthcare and hospitality) The labor force participation rate also declined to 62.3% -->the lowest since December 2022. Bottom line:

The big picture on jobs: The labor market is frozen unless you work in healthcare or education. 1) Unemployment is low (4.1%). 2) But the labor force is also shrinking as people retire or stop looking for work. 3) The Fed isn't going to panic about any of this. The job market

🚨HOUSE PASSES RECONCILIATION BILL, HEADS TO W.H. FOR TRUMP'S SIGNATURE VOTE WAS 218-214 GOP NO VOTES: FITZPATRICK MASSIE

"This bill will be the most expensive reconciliation bill in history, adding $4.1 trillion to the national debt through 2034. If its temporary provisions are extended permanently, that total would rise to $5.5 trillion. Under the bill as written, the national debt would rise from