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Russia, winter 2022: Haha! We will destroy your entire energy infrastructure so you will freeze, threatening thousands of lives. Suck it! Also Russia, now: What, us? Destroy a dam to forestall a Ukrainian counteroffensive and threaten thousands of lives? No way! #Kherson

China's economy is undergoing a structural shift with long-term drags from issues like demography and debt. But is it doomed, on the verge of collapse or likely to create a more belligerent Beijing? I suggest not in my latest for The Straits Times straitstimes.com/opinion/report…

Delighted to be an author on this major U.S.-China Commission paper on China's remote sensing capabilities. Remote sensing is a key force multiplier for military operations, and one area where China is catching up to US capabilities, complicating US deployments and deterrence strategy.

My thanks to Colin Demarest for including my thoughts on what PLA corruption means for Xi Jinping. Of the 17 men appointed to the CMC since Xi came to power, 5 have been ousted for corruption. There is an important discussion to be had on PLA readiness and corruption.

The US continues to deploy to the CENTCOM AOR. Left: USS Carl Vinson in Guam en route to the Red Sea, to make it two carrier strike groups in the region. Right: B-2 bombers in Diego Garcia. Ostensibly for the airstrike campaign against the Houthis, but a useful show of

After Typhon, now NMESIS. SECDEF Hegseth is in the Philippines. A joint statement was released that announced the deployment of the excellently named NMESIS (Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System). NMESIS is a mobile ground-based anti-ship missile system. It will

China is diversifying its missile options. Confirmation that the KD-21 air-launched ballistic missile is now in operation service underlines how Beijing is developing a range of ground-, air-, and ship-launched missiles with both cruise and ballistic trajectories. This

Rumours have been circulating of He Weidong’s ouster for a few weeks. This will fuel them further, He is the second most politically powerful man in uniform and would be the third sitting CMC member to be ousted in 18 months, Not clear yet that he’s gone, but if so losing 3

Two days after the MoD announced HMS Prince of Wales would be headed to the Indo-Pacific, the U.K. is reaffirming its role in the region. But this trip also underlines a deeper strategic point - the U.K. is focused on the near-term and closer threat from Russia and is looking

Useful The Wall Street Journal graphics on federal spending in the US. BLUF: the Trump administration is already spending USD150bn more than the last year of the Biden admin. Some costs may be deferred, but it shows the challenge of cost cutting. Musk said yesterday they have only identified

A good wrap from Rush Doshi and Kurt Campbell on the US' primary competitive advantage against China: its allies. Timely given the Trump administration's somewhat combative policies towards allies in recent weeks.

This is the key stat on the latest tariff reversal. Beijing didn’t lift a finger but now finds nearly a quarter of its exports are exempted from tariffs. Sure, China would like the rest of the tariffs removed but that’s a big climb down from the US and doesn’t feel like

Good data from Lyle Morris on the He Weidong purge. I would add that the recent slew of ousters is of senior officers promoted by Xi himself. He can no longer blame previous administrations and now is having to remove almost half of his own hand-picked senior military

It's nice to be wanted. Two stories show the schmoozing of Gulf states by large powers, with the US looking to sell arms and Russia seeking to gain investment and support. Seemingly no F-35s for Saudi, though. aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/25… defensenews.com/global/mideast…

Want to know what Beijing is currently thinking on the trade war? An editorial in the Beijing Daily yesterday hasn't gained much traction beyond the Chinawatcher sphere. But it should. It calls for the public to revisit Mao's 1938 essay "On Protracted War." It is not very

New annual report from SIPRI highlights the interminable increases in defence spending worldwide as global stability continues to fray. "The 9.4 per cent increase in 2024 was the steepest year-on-year rise since at least 1988." sipri.org/sites/default/…

In old money, Waltz lasted just over 9 Scaramuccis or 4 Michael Flynns. How comfortable is Hegseth feeling now?

Useful historical context to the UK's forthcoming SDR here. It has been decades of waning military capability that the UK is now trying to address with more spending and a more urgent focus on immediate security threats. It will be interesting to see how the SDR focuses the

I found the description of asymmetric advantage in the UK’s National Security Strategy a bit confusing. So I offered an alternative for Council on Geostrategy

Delighted to write this new memo for the Council on Geostrategy on the UK's decision to procure F-35A aircraft and diversify the country's extended nuclear deterrent. An interesting move that both returns the UK to a nuclear dyad but also relies on the United States for the