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Risk assets may be approaching a local trouble zone as Active Manager Sentiment spikes into extreme greed. Typically this signals increased local volatility, but it rare cases it can be much worse.

Is $150K coming in September/October? M3 total money supply, lagged 2.5 months

Happy to announce I will be speaking at TOKEN2049. Look forward to seeing a few of you there in October!

The latest REF review, thank you Tom!

Household debt lowest in 50 years. Long-term bullish.

Great summary - Dollar cheap, tight credit spreads, inflation close to target (2.4%), interest rate cuts coming (job losses), and multi-year highs in M2 money supply growth rates. These are net mid- to long-term bullish factors.

Bitcoin Treasury Company BTC purchases per quarter. Looks like the adoption J-curve is about to go exponential.

This adoption curve is nuts. It’s pretty mind blowing that today there’s 145 publicly traded companies actively buying Bitcoin... and growing every week.

The "Bitcoin is too Volatile" or "just speculation" argument misses the fact that for Bitcoin to become "real money" used day-to-day, we need to get to $10-20T + market cap. The only way to do that is massive volatility and acquisition by early adopters. This is the only road to

New all time highs beget new ATHs. It's usually unwise to ignore a major breakout like this, until invalidated. We have exponential growth in Bitcoin treasury companies, dozens popping up in the last months. Now they can go to their investors and show insane performance

The worst Bitcoin drawdown this cycle has been just 33%, way below historical norms. The multi year downtrend in volatility will continue until Bitcoin becomes base money.

Not a bad call

🤯 Bitcoin hits a new all-time high — $118K USD. Market cap: $2.3 trillion. #6 largest asset in the world, and just shy of Amazon at #5. How did we get here? Let’s wind back the clock… 📅Nov 2010 — Market cap: ~$1 million. Bitcoin trades around $0.10. Its total market cap

The Bitcoin Heater is starting to get spicy once again

Well it's been a couple months, and Bitcoin is up 28%. I've been harping on about this relationship every year since 2020 and it continues to be a money printer despite the naysayers.

Bitcoin is rapidly closing in on its fair value for the first time since 2024! I love finding huge discounts like the one below.

The Bitcoin Liquidity Tap Money and liquidity provided the backdrop for capital flows, and Bitcoin Treasury Companies are the funnel. Read: 👉Capriole: capriole.com/update-64/ 👉Substack: caprioleio.substack.com/p/the-bitcoin-…

No, $120K Bitcoin is not very high.