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Generally agree with this thread, and on the original post: it's an example of analysis that assumes Republicans have zero agency (also analysis I think is simplistic, wrong, and not actually interested in the data)

Maybe he wants to be an umpire

Setting aside the desperate lies here, if immigration enforcement money was so critical, then why tuck it in a vehicle the White House knew would take MONTHS to pass? A standalone bill with money for immigration enforcement likely gets 70+ votes in the Senate. Easily.

Several right-leaning pollsters are releasing enough polls with highly skewed data that they can meaningfully change Trump's approval average. And if your aggregation model isn't designed well, that'll happen. Big piece on house effects & methodology in Trump approval averages:

New Hampshire implemented Work Requirements on a compressed timeline (one year between approval and implementation, about what BBB will give states). It didn't work. 1/3rd of beneficiaries would have lost coverage because of paperwork issues. The state ended the WR program.

He really does look like he's having a good time, it's delightful

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New newsletter: The death of partying in the USA The latest American Time Use Survey came out last month. I wanted to follow up on Ellen Cushing's declaration that Americans need to party more. The new data confirms: America's social crisis is dire. - Between 2003 and 2024, the

Remember, right-wing accounts are making up reports of Powell resigning so that the FHFA director can comment on the fake reports to distract you from the fact that they’re not releasing the Epstein files

Fascinating graph by WaPo. Depressing! Totally scans with what we've been seeing!

If my party had made a scandal a core issue, and I got into power where I could actually look into that, I would maybe like.... actually do that