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Young people are less attached to parties & thus more swept up in thermostatic backlash & the economic nature of the times. We wrongly interpret that as ideological trends previewing future young voters. But future young voters will be more impressionable during a new environment

Understanding causality vs. correlation is genuinely hard especially on complex topics like inflation. Our research finds that 60% of Americans think high interest rates cause high inflation & support rate cuts to fight it. But high rates usually respond to inflation,not cause it

As we hit the 15-year anniversary of the ACA's enactment, a reminder that if you are curious about how public opinion responded to the ACA, I have the book for you... tl;dr The law's complexity & indirectness limited its appeal, but repeal attempts made it more popular.

Look at the distribution of z-values from medical research!

First instalment of my Substack primer on right-wing populism in Europe is out.

There's a type of lazy modeler who thinks they're too cool to draw DAGs. This person learned casual inference in the 80s-90s and needs to deligitimize new tools. Do not trust this kind of person. They're making subtle mistakes and just don't care. x.com/RexDouglass/st…

I wrote my dissertation on this puzzle. It’s even more surprising/stark than it first seems, and almost none of the answers in reply to this post hold water. Ag policy suggests that economic clout can be overrated for understanding US political influence jakejares.com/uploads/Jares_…

Excited to be presenting this joint work with Frederik Hjorth today at the TaDa Spring Speaker Series: sites.google.com/view/polsci-ml… Tune in at 5pm CEST!

just dropped an article with Brian Schaffner and Steve Ansolabehere showing that claims about young voters flipping to Trump aren't supported by CES, VoteCast, or exit poll data. low response rates and vote misreporting help explain the confusion tufts-pol.medium.com/have-young-vot…

🪙 Standard inequality metrics like income concentration fall short in capturing how people perceive inequality. ➡️ Using U.S. survey data, B. J. Newman finds that indicators capturing the co-presence of "haves" & "have-nots" perform better cambridge.org/core/journals/… #FirstView

Who benefits from trade wars? Government-linked firms.

🧵New survey paper: "Inference with Few Treated Units" Alvarez (Luís A. F. Alvarez), Ferman (Bruno Ferman) and Wüthrich Tired of referees saying your standard errors are wrong? This survey will help you understand if you really have a problem — and, if so, how to fix it!

The Trump administration/majority is largely governing through executive orders. And more than 40% of Trump's EO are aimed at his electoral promise to "Drain the Swamp" of the federal bureaucracies. A New Age of Ruling by Executive Order? statista.com/chart/34376/mo…

A under-discussed backdrop to yesterday's election results—Britain today feels less pleasant, well-maintained and orderly than a decade ago: from potholes to phone-snatchers. I've spent the past few months digging in to why for The Economist. A short 🧵 on what I've concluded.

🏦When do people report their true views on the economy? ➡️Jan Zilinsky & James Bisbee find that less-politicized survey questions better capture actual public welfare—beyond partisan bias cambridge.org/core/journals/… #FirstView

The most comprehensive assessment of Latino party identification finds that Latinos are moving Dem --> Ind more than Dem --> Rep. It's a "racial dealignment" more than a "racial realignment."

Fascinating paper. Members of congress are not extreme because primary voters are more informed/extreme. They are extreme exactly because primary voters are *less* knowledgeable about candidate positions. This gives local candidates weaker incentives to moderate.

Har skrevet et debatindlæg om PRTs forslag til boligbyggeri i København.

I disagree with this -- both because the empirical literature Caplan relies on is not particularly convincing and because most "voters' stupidity is to blame for Trump" takes don't contend seriously with alternative "rational" explanations. Note: Caplan might still be right; yet,

Why do governments wait until the fiscal crisis hits to act? Alesina & Drazen (1991) argue that stabilization delays aren’t irrational. They’re a war of attrition as groups fight to avoid bearing the cost. The Big Beautiful Bill is setting up the next round.