🔥The 9th Round of Easy Loan, Earn $40 Reward is in progress❗️ ⏰ Promotion Period: January 15th - Feburary 15th, 2025 👉 Register now and check more details at gate.io/campaigns/358

Still some time to apply to be part of the project The Peace Dividends and Post-conflict Reconstruction project (Dividends): jobs.ac.uk/job/DJP774/res…; part-time; hybrid.

Regressions on multiple treatments and controls do not estimate averages of treatment-specific effects. Instead, the estimated treatment coefficients may be "contaminated" by the effects of other treatments This paper shows this problem and proposes practical diagnostics and

If you are taking (or teaching!) a course on statistical inference/regression, I have a draft textbook available for free mattblackwell.github.io/gov2002-book/ Recently updated to introduce design- and modeled-based inference. Emphasis on intuition and rigor.

Interesting analysis by The Guardian on backgrounds of UK rioters. This is very much in line with our conclusions that a) far-right violence is local and b) neighbourhoods' deprivation relative to their surrounding areas matters. H/t Margherita Belgioioso & KSG theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/s…

PRIO Director Vacancy Announcement We are looking for an engaged and unifying leader who will contribute to strengthening peace research nationally and internationally. As Director of PRIO, you will lead a trend-setting, international and interdisciplinary research environment.

@POLISatLeeds Centre for Global Security Challenges @theguardian_drc published our (Christoph Dworschak & Kristian Gleditsch) letter showing that socio-economic deprivation can be used to predict far right violence in response to their article on the right-wing riots. theguardian.com/world/2024/sep…

Published a letter in the The Guardian w/ Margherita Belgioioso & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch on their recent article covering the link between far right violence and socio-economic deprivation. @PolResearchYork

Happy to be invited to talk about ongoing work with Karina Mross on political instability and social cohesion Centre for Global Security Challenges & @POLISatLeeds! @PolResearchYork

Was great fun talking about crisis early warning and conflict prediction at the University of York Students' Union Politics Society event yesterday evening. Many engaged students with excellent questions. Department of Politics and International Relations

Presenting today University of Leeds: how does music listening behavior help us predict political instability? With Department of Politics and International Relations guest researcher Karina Mross.

📢🎓 PhD position in my new "The future of EUrope" project 💶 Good salary & project money for data collections, travels, etc. 📝 International supervision team 🌍 Trondheim 🇳🇴 lively student city with great nature 🗓️ DL 10.12. jobbnorge.no/en/available-j… Thanks for sharing and RT!

Average summit view on this weekend's hike in the Lake District.

It's that time of year again... The call for our UCL Conflict & Change PhD Workshop is out!🙂We invite ECR working on IR, conflict, contentious politics to apply by 8 December. We look forward to having you in London UCL Political Science - School of Public Policy 24-25 February, 2025. Apply here: conflictandchange.org/phdworkshop2025

Our current take on #protest in #Mozambique /w Salvador Forquilha & Karina Mross. German version below, English version @ idos-research.de/en/the-current…

This was a very interesting piece to work on. At the Beyond Compliance Consortium, we are looking into patterns of armed actors' behavior & how that maps onto IHL. While working on this, we noticed a mismatch between IHL defs and common quant measures. This post summarizes some core points.

Applications are now open for the 2025 Essex Summer School! Running from July 7-Aug 15, ESS features over 40 courses of quantitative and qualitative social science methods training, available both online and in-person. Learn more here: essexsummerschool.com/courses/ess-20…

First day @#ISA2025 - join us in the afternoon for an exciting panel on protest trajectories! @DEval_Institute

How randomized military patrols in Cali, #Colombia diminished citizens' commitment to democracy and the rule of law New work w/ Michael Weintraub & Lucia Mendoza in AJPS onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/aj…

Very excited that our paper *Rulers on the Road* has been cond. accepted at the AJPS x.com/AJPS_Editor. We analyze emperors' strategies of itinerant rule in the Holy Roman Empire 919-1519. Fun working with -- deactivated legacy account -- Clara Neupert-Wentz & Jørgen Møller shorturl.at/Spm7z

It was such a pleasure to kick off #NEPS2025 with Karina Mross presenting on contentious behavior and collective music listening behavior, and a fascinating presentation by twitterless Christoph V. Steinert on police violence!