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Poll results depend on pollster choices as much as voters’ decisions. Simple changes in how to weight a single poll can move the Harris-Trump margin 8 points. goodauthority.org/news/election-…

Sharing this piece by Tanvi Madan which helpfully cuts through the noise to clarify what the Modi-Xi meeting was and was not. She concludes the meeting represented a tactical thaw rather than a strategic shift away from Sino-Indian rivalry. brookings.edu/articles/has-i…

Americans’ top goals for US-China relations moving forward: avoiding a military conflict (69% very important) and maintaining the US high-tech edge (60%), new Chicago Council on Global Affairs-Ipsos polling finds. brnw.ch/21wOhwQ

What Main Street wants from the next POTUS in terms of foreign policy - read Chicago Council on Global Affairs 2024 annual survey of Americans on US role in the world brnw.ch/21wOiZS

Our new piece on the results of a survey of 471 US foreign policy leaders. A majority of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents all believe a Trump victory would make US withdrawal from NATO more likely though war with Russia less likely. 1/ globalaffairs.org/commentary-and…

“If foreign policy leaders are right, this election could be historic in important ways, leading to major shifts in the foreign policy orientation of the country,” Josh Busby, Jordan Tama, Jonathan Monten, and Craig Kafura write in #RunningNumbers. brnw.ch/21wOnbg

"Survey respondents may be (mostly) independent observations from each other; but pollsters making modeling decisions certainly are not" chip50.org/blog/a-few-mor…

If NYT estimates are correct, national polls would be off by 2.4 (compared to 538 averages) & swing state polls would be off 1.9 PA, 4.1 NV, 1.7 GA, 2.5 NC, 2.9 MI, 2.6 WI, & 2.6 AZ. That's not a large average error, though it is systematic in the same direction as 2016 & 2020.

Is there any incumbent, anywhere in the world, who hasn’t suffered a major voter repudiation if standing for election since the post-COVID inflation surge?

A pretty simple model is that unpopular incumbent parties lose. Biden's 38% approval rating in June corresponds to a Democratic popular vote of about 48%.

What does Trump 2.0 mean for Asia? Some thoughts: 1. The biggest whiplash will be on the role and value of U.S. alliances. Moving from central to U.S. strategy to questioned as a value at all will accelerate trends in cooperation. 1/

Props to these folks. It’s all about measuring the right fundamentals (incumbent approval; economic performance) at the right time (~100 days before the election).

I am begging you people to stop drawing sweeping conclusions about demographic subgroups from utterly unreliable early exits

More evidence pointing to Dem Senate candidates winning not solely because of people actively splitting their tickets, but people voting for Trump and not voting downballot

People desperately need to stop trying to frame this as a turnout story -- it's not supported by the aggregate data, county/precinct data, or common sense. Great post by Spooky Charlotte Swasey

Will the US negativity to immigration reverse now? Quite likely! Folks forget immigration backlash works both ways. Pro-immigration politics may be unpopular, but so is unnecessarily cruel anti-immigration politics. "Reverse Backlash" is open-access now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/nf…

Rep Mike Waltz has been tapped to be Trump's National Security Advisor. Here are some notable quotes from Rep Waltz on China:

I deeply supported the CTC but COVID programs didn't move sentiment. See below. Parents <$50K were touched by most COVID relief, college grads >$200K by almost none, yet their consumer sentiment didn't start diverging until mid-2023, long after all the COVID relief had rolled off

Very interesting thread.