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Six days into Atlantic hurricane season with no threat yet. GFS model false alarm season continues toward week of June 16th, but no credible concerns currently.

Summer excitement still lacking on modeling with only intermittent, brief pulses of heat eastward and main sustainable heat in interior West.

GFS models keep false alarming storms in Gulf and Caribbean, but are hitting temporal wall in late 6-10 day range.

11-15 day and end of day 15 (hour 360) clusters hold main heat narrative in West with limited East to South concerns.

Upcoming global wind oscillation (GWO) phase 2 should support some heat stretching across Central to Eastern U.S., but some heat retreat possible by June 23rd week as phase 3 potentially arrives.

11-15 day and day 15 clusters continue to show limited chances for strong or sustained East to South heat.

Ridging not strong enough to squelch rain chances for Midwest, East, and South for 6-15 day, which complicates heat efforts.

Warm to hot 15-day Central to Eastern ridging pattern polluted by precipitation over much of Midwest, East, and South.

Global wind oscillation progression favoring hot weather into third week of June, but eventually some heat retreat is seen.

July expected to run cooler than last year and 10Y normal for U.S. cooling demand, but still hotter than 30-year normal.

All-ensemble mean shifted over the weekend to cooler for current Jun 16th week, but also to much hotter for Midwest to East for Jun 23rd week.

Day 15 is final day of June, and ensemble members off three different pattern options as July approaches.

Strong heat surges across Midwest and into East Coast this coming weekend into early-to-middle next week with hottest weather of summer so far and risks for record-level heat.

National corn/spring wheat ratings improved but cotton/soy fell slightly per the latest USDA crop progress report. commoditywx.com/news/20250616/…

Model analogs continue to try to break down the Europe ridge in the 16-30 day, but warm East Atlantic SSTs are fighting back. commoditywx.com/news/20250616/…

NOAA July forecast favors western-based heat, dryness in the N. Rockies to N. Plains.

Short-term surge delivering similar strong hot conditions to PJM and Northeast as seen in late June last year. Event is short-lived with rain chances returning mid-late, bal-week.

Rising global wind anomaly and PNA should help pull heat back to upper West by 6-10, but especially by 11-15 day.

11-15 day and day 15 clusters favoring heat shift mostly toward upper West.

Rain returns to East by late 1 to 5 day into especially 6-10 day with signs of monsoon moisture arriving in Southwest by 11-15 day to kick off season.