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My book is official published and available for purchase on Amazon. Check it out. amazon.com/dp/1912440539?…

Ranking cyber insecurity as a more severe risk than interstate armed conflict? It's like being more afraid of a wiffle bat than a machine gun.

My new piece in Foreign Affairs (w/Wilfred Chow) discusses the implications of our recent findings on the effectiveness of whataboutism in the international arena to US FP in general & the USG habit of criticizing other countries behavior in particular🧵 foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…

🚨New (free to access) article in the summer issue International Security How does fatalism among leaders cause the outbreak of war? direct.mit.edu/isec/article/4…

We worry a lot about the credibility of threats. We should worry more about the credibility of coercive assurance. Targets of coercion defy credible threats when they think they are ‘damned if they do and damned if they don’t’. doi.org/10.1162/isec_a…

Taiwan has quietly changed its air raid alert threshold from 70 to 24 nautical miles. A short thread on why and implications. scmp.com/news/china/pol…

Still time to make sure every map in the White House is a Peters Projection with Asia in the middle. Prevent a few headaches.

Well worth a read. I agree that salami tactics was the right approach even as I maintain that it was implemented too tentatively

A long thread on the war and the current situation. Although the worst-case scenarios didn’t materialize in 2024, it was the most difficult period since spring 2022. There were positive developments, and bright spots, but the current trajectory is negative. 1/

Enjoyed this conversation about territorial conquest and the Russia-Ukraine War

Brief thoughts on a European force for Ukraine. I think there is a degree of requirements paralysis. It doesn’t have to be hundreds of thousands of troops, or cover a 1200km contact line. Where it is deployed, and in what role, is more important than the overall size. 1/

Today's the day: Tides of Fortune is officially released! I'm so excited to get to share this book with the world after over a decade of work on this project. We've got a video explainer coming soon, and a bunch of launch events, but for now, a few words of thanks...

An update on the war following a recent trip. The situation has improved compared with Fall 2024. Russian offensive momentum slowed significantly over the winter, though it is premature to claim that the front has stabilized, especially following AFU withdrawal in Kursk. /1

I defended my #dissertation. I left with no revisions — but a heart full of gratitude. Alex Berg, Dan Altman (Dan Altman), Carrie Manning: thank you for challenging me, supporting me, and helping me grow into the scholar I am. #PhDone Pol Sci @ GSU

My new article in International Politics just dropped! Examines the puzzle of US security assistance to Ukraine before 2022 -- why provide not enough aid to deter but also too much to appease Russia? Relevant to Taiwan today: rdcu.be/ei4Gu

The piece finds that unconditional signals of U.S. abandonment, and to a lesser extent conditional U.S. threats of abandonment and increased alliance burden-sharing, modestly increase support for nuclear weapons. But effect sizes are fairly small overall. doi.org/10.1093/isq/sq…

With the developments of the last few hours, it is my view that this crisis is now more dangerous than any other India-Pakistan crisis since both sides developed covert nuclear weapons capabilities in the late 1980s. More dangerous than Kargil. More dangerous than 2001-2002.

Grave situation in South Asia. The message to both sides should be: No Ground Advances. If that red line is not crossed, the chances are much better of avoiding a major war.

New publication: "Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025" up now at the Stimson Center Stimson Center . Executive summary here, but link to all 12,000 words and 123 footnotes in the next post.

You just gotta love this. From a CIA study.