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Worst take ever. None of the short list would mollify markets if Powell is forced out. To be clear if he resigns he was forced out. Mohamed and I are old colleagues but this one is a bad take. Being a martyr and resigning for the moral and ethical cause would backfire.

Okay my worst take ever by El Arian tweet was at 7:28 AM EDT. Many many mutuals are also now making a similar QT or comment My questions are Was I first? Is there a prize? Should this be competition be a sport?

CB independence Absent inflation CB's and politicians are always aligned. In crisis they are literally merged. In non inflationary times they are "independent" but don't matter as they are essentially aligned with the then current administration. In financial stability

I was asked just now by a client if alpha was easier 30 years ago. I responded that the internet didn't exist. So yeah. Somewhat easier.

Rip

A short research piece from us this week: does it ever feel like a good time to invest in the market?

Do the private equity buyers of homes structure the purchases such that if capital tax gains on homes would be eliminated for them too? 🧐

Welp at least you got your dividend yield on $TXN this year.

Spicy take this morning Randy Rhoads>Tony Iommi>>>Ozzy. RIP Led Zeppelin >>>>>>Ozzy's bands Jimmy Page = Robert Plant >>>>>>>>>>> all Ozzy related personnel

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There has only been one macro trade this year that matters. Everything else has been choppy

By far the best at estimating the various treasury accounts and financing needs. Must follow and subscribe to his paid blog. It's a bargain.

Current DS Beta and DS alpha positioning. $100 invested In beta as shown. Alpha positioning is recently acquired puts on SPX and NDX worth $2, a long August Vix futures short Sept vix futures spread at a 1.75 credit, long SFRM6 futures risking $2 for every 25bp change and

This combined portfolio of alpha and beta reflects my strong view that most of one's assets should be diversified across assets, countries, and currencies, and mostly left alone. It's moderately heavy in cash which reflects my outlook for long term expected value in assets being

Wait wut?

In comments in one of my posts I came across a person with no risk target for his portfolio and a view that his job is to maximize return without regard to risk. I said the job of every investor is to know what their risk tolerance is and hold a portfolio that takes roughly that

I'd tell you a Fibonacci joke but it's probably as bad as the last two you've heard combined.

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I will be releasing my Damped Spring Report called "Big Week" to clients on Sunday. It will preview the QRA and FOMC. I think next week will be highly consequential and impact investing for the year to come. It could be either bullish or bearish but it will be big! Link for

Many goals for me. Beard obvi and perspective in life as well. Interesting AI take. #TikTok tiktok.com/t/ZP8kJYxrA/