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On June 3, join us for a webinar on the risks to taxpayer privacy as taxpayer data is accessed and shared across government in unprecedented ways. The event will be moderated by Lily Batchelder and feature an opening discussion with Daniel Werfel. Register: nyu.zoom.us/webinar/regist…

THREAD: Markets are waking up to a provision buried in the House bill that could undermine the demand for US Treasuries at a time when bond markets are already jittery: ft.com/content/b40000… bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Not a time to be introducing even more unnecessary uncertainty especially in the Treasury markets. If this provision in House bill stays, it could be another own goal. Even if it doesn’t, reporting suggests already doing damage to demand for Treasuries and other assets.

NEW analysis by the Congressional Budget Office shows the "One Big Beautiful Bill": 1.) Makes the bottom 30% worse off 2.) Finances tax cuts that make the top 10% in particular better off. This is not shared sacrifice--it's a fiscal transfer from the bottom to the top.

Here is what the distribution of the reconciliation bill looks like including tariffs, hot off The Budget Lab presses. Income falls for the *bottom 80%* of households. Full report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/combi…

New JCT distributional estimates of Senate Finance Committee proposed tax changes. Compared to current law, the bill heavily skews benefits to the wealthy as a share of after-tax income. 1/

THREAD: GOP Senators say they're trying to scale back the SALT cap relief in the House bill. But could their approach to SALT end up *more* generous & costly overall than the House bill? Do Senators – or does anyone – even know, despite the intense political focus on SALT?

Just incredible stuff from the Trump Council of Economic Advisers--they say that the Trump "No Tax On" garbage alone will boost the level of GDP by 0.3-0.4% when in effect. That's as large a boost as the Joint Committee on Taxation finds from all the tax provisions combined.

Just so we all understand, the CEA numbers are ridiculous. CBO estimates OBBBA dynamic feedback will cost $400b. Other estimates range from -$860b to +$905b. $2.2 trillion is🤪

Trump CEA estimates of growth and deficit reduction under their tax/spending cut plan is the Mother of All Voodoo Economics. In other equally credible projections: I am projecting I will start in Pistons backcourt with Cade Cunningham in 2025-26 season. axios.com/2025/06/25/tru…

Just to emphasize: On one of the largest and most progressive (in a wildly regressive bill) revenue raisers, the budget bills are leaving gaping holes on workarounds for certain biz owners and the Senate bill could well be giving away more $$$ than the House.

THREAD: This SALT “deal” in the latest Senate bill is a nonsensical approach to tax policy. It preserves (and lessens) a limit on deductions for wealthy taxpayers while ignoring a loophole that allows the wealthiest of those taxpayers to avoid the limit entirely.

Some of the surprise new tax breaks that popped up overnight in the new Senate text they're trying to shove towards a vote: 1) tax subsidies for spaceports (who asked for this?) 2) tax credits for coal (including exports)

THREAD Lawmakers are realizing “surprises,” “airdrops” &“mysteries” are buried in the bill. Time to take a beat: seems more important to know what's in a ~$5T bill than meet a fake deadline! Things worth $10s/100s of billions & people’s livelihoods & health aren’t “minutiae.”

The TCJA, whatever you think of it, was a genuinely reform-minded bill. It improved horizontal equity—the idea that tax rates should depend only how well-off you are, not how you make your money or what you spend it on. But this new bill would reverse much of that progress.