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The electoral swing map in Toronto looks just like NYC. Big left party (Libs/Dems) does best in/around downtown, while big right party (Cons/Reps) surges in the periphery where working-class immigrants live. economist.com/the-americas/2… 1/2

New from Zachary Donnini and me on the Yale Youth Poll Substack: precinct-level election data shows that young voters on college campuses swung 11 points to the right from 2020 to 2024, confirming David Shor's analysis of the youth vote. yalepolling.substack.com/p/democrats-ca…

Just plugging my favorite account on election Twitter: Jesse Richardson 🔸⏹️ has a strong record predicting events and does a great job using data nobody else is looking at to say something new He’s somehow 23 and from New Zealand—folks should follow him/subscribe to his new Substack

Disengaged voters (defined in various ways, but basically – folks who don’t vote regularly and pay less attention to politics) drove most of the movement away from Democrats from 2020 to 2024 – this is a trend that’s been ongoing since 2012.

When primary AND general voters learn a candidate agrees with them on an issue, they're ~14 percentage points more likely to vote for that candidate. In generals, this includes when the closest candidate is an outpartisan–party loyalty isn’t everything.

Oxford Economics report finds employment for 22-27 y.o. college grads in computer science and mathematical occupations is down 8% since 2022: "Recent and experienced college graduate unemployment rates have always been lower than the national average, until now"

Great interview with Blue Rose's McKenzie Wilson about how comms staffers can use message testing to hone our best hits against the Trump Administration. x.com/mattyglesias/s…

dylan matthews 🔸 John Handley Jason Furman It’s crazy that the spectre of fully automated luxury gay space communism is upon us and the most anyone on the left has to say about it is some quibbles over artist IP and water consumption

Excited to share Blue Rose’s shira mitchell’s new blog series about modern survey statistics!

Sasha Gusev I think the Alice Evans point that the last decade of fertility collapse is almost entirely driven by coupling rates going down dramatically everywhere in the world and *not* by couples having fewer kids is clarifying and cuts through a lot of the culture war stuff on this

Blue Rose is hiring an Executive Operations Associate for our NYC office - great position for someone who might be interested in jumping in to politics for the first time or is detail-oriented/ mission driven to supporting Democratic campaigns! job-boards.greenhouse.io/blueroseresear…