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New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP18434 Investing in Friends: The Role of Geopolitical Alignment in FDI Flows Shekhar Aiyar Shekhar Aiyar IMF Davide Malacrino davide malacrino IMF Andrea Presbitero Andrea Presbitero IMF ow.ly/irT650PLx5K #CEPR_ITRE

Excited to see our eBook out! Check out our VoxEU column with Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas for a quick intro to the book: cepr.org/voxeu/columns/…. Thanks to all authors and discussants for their great work!

Fun fact: in what is kind of the most excellent coincidence I have ever seen, today's economics laureate Claudia Goldin has a new NBER working paper out this morning called "Why Women Won." (This really presumably is a coincidence because not only is it not possible to

Check out this jump, present in all these series. Did pre-tax incomes of the rich really increased by 20% to 40% between 1986 and 1988? No, it's the Tax Reform Act of 1986 that changed incentives for how businesses are organized and visibility of incomes on individual tax returns

A 🧵on my "Cold War II?" speech. [1] Fragmentation policies are on the rise with 3000 new trade restricting measures imposed in 2022, and companies are increasingly focused on issues such as re-shoring, near-shoring & friend-shoring.

🚨🚨Our paper showing that #FDI flows are increasingly concentrated among geopolitically aligned countries is forthcoming in the European Journal of Political Economy davide malacrino Shekhar Aiyar #geoeconomics #friendshoring ungated draft: dropbox.com/scl/fi/1n0hdvm…

After a lecture on the history of Ashenfelter-Angrist-Lalonde-Card-Krueger approaches to inference, how would summarize quickly's Manski's conceptual and empirical stance in a few sentences to econ Ma and early PhD students who don't know it?

Americans are moving away from the office. Employees hired in 2023 now live 35 miles from office, up from 10 miles in 2019. So firms now are hiring in a much bigger area. Which is why RTOs are now so hard - folks don't live near the office anymore. bit.ly/4a2LOxL

Jonathan Levin, a distinguished economist and Stanford alumnus who has led the Stanford Graduate School of Business as dean for the last eight years, has been appointed the next president of Stanford University, the Board of Trustees announced today. stanford.io/3TIqneN

TANK, HANK, RBC, RANK

In a speech at Stanford Graduate School of Business, Chief Economist Philip R. Lane reviews the monetary policy tightening cycle and discusses the next phase of reducing the level of restriction. Read his speech ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date…

The US is recovering so much faster than other advanced economies. x.com/FSoyres/status…

‼️New/substantially revised paper: Why are the wealthiest so wealthy?‼️ A short thread on new empirical evidence from 23-year administrative panel data and what they mean for theories of top wealth inequality. Joint work with Elin Halvorsen, Joachim Hubmer, and Salgado.

Cool result by Levintal/Fernandez-Villaverde: the rich are rich because they are less risk averse, not because they’re more patient Gamma heterogeneity is needed for wealthy to save in riskier, higher return assets (opposite to Beta-het in Krusell Smith) conference.nber.org/conf_papers/f1…

Glad to share our latest NBER working paper with davide malacrino and Raffaele Saggio. Check out the details below. #Economics #Research

Finally, the cogent defense of the linear probability model I've been looking for.

Despite recent ECB rate cuts, the average interest rate on mortgages is expected to further increase. That is due to lag effects from the latest hiking cycle. The ECB blog shows that the resulting drag on consumption could last at least until 2030.

Average mortgage interest rates are set to rise despite recent ECB rate cuts, slowing the recovery in consumption. Why? 🔹lag effects from the previous hiking cycle 🔹a high share of fixed-rate mortgages Read more in our #EconomicBulletin

If you’re interested in how demographic factors shape growth and productivity (and you should be, as low fertility, aging and migration are first order issues), you may want to take a look at the new IMF note prepared for the G20 South Africa. You can download it here:

📦 Can industrial policy work? Yes—the East Asian experience shows it can (at least partially). But its success rests on a key condition: labor control. 🇯🇵🇰🇷🇹🇼 Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan industrialized rapidly under authoritarian or semi-authoritarian regimes. Wages and