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Trump’s letter to Japan is pure clown show. Threats, bad grammar, zero diplomacy. He’s wrecking decades of trust over a trade deficit he doesn’t even understand. And for what?

If there’s one thing worse than tariffs, it’s tariffs that keep changing every other day, making it impossible for affected businesses to plan. theguardian.com/us-news/2025/j…

The UK’s public finances have emerged from a series of global shocks in a relatively vulnerable position. At the end of 2024, the UK government had the sixth-highest debt, the fifth-highest deficit, and third-highest borrowing costs among 36 advanced economies. #OBRfiscalrisks

I once went on "Target" on Sky News, with Norman Tebbit and Austin Mitchell, both now sadly no longer with us. It was basically a forum for them to have a good-natured argument, with the guest sitting in the middle and in my case struggling to get a word in.

Today's updated #ChartOfTheDay on welfare shows that the UK sits just below the middle of the pack on social spending.   The UK spends ~23% of GDP on social protection according to the OECD. The DWP's lower figure of 10.8% only covers DWP benefits — not NHS, care, or housing.

My Times piece: When taxes change too often it creates uncertainty and instability and hits activity. So it has been with stamp duty over the past few years: Real-life experiment proves stamp duty changes create uncertainty thetimes.com/article/e143eb…

Financial Times It’s irritating that Dimon says things like this, knowing he’s misleading people by essentially talking about exchange-rate fluctuations. At PPP, the EU economy was about 97%, 96% and 96% as large as the US economy in 2009, 2014 and 2024, respectively. data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.G…

One should always take the specific numbers in monthly GDP estimates with a tankard full of salt. But it certainly feels like the UK economy has flattened off since utility bills and employer NICs rose in April and Trump threw a series of wild curveballs at the world economy.

The government plans to ban companies from using non-disclosure agreements (NDAs) to silence victims of sexual harassment and discrimination. Will this improve workplace cultures?

My Sunday Times piece is a gloomy one: UK government debt is on an unsustainable trajectory and today’s politicians seem unwilling or unable to do anything to stop it: The UK can’t keep muddling through a massive increase in debt thetimes.com/article/eb5125…

The UK’s debt trap is increasingly problematic- ⁦David Smith⁩ explains why we are living beyond our means. His latest excellent column in The Sunday ⁦The Times and The Sunday Times⁩ thetimes.com/article/eb5125…

Thanks Jonathan

David Smith Doubtless you are right that most voters think the debt level is undesirable, but are they ready for the fiscal pain to bring it under control? We need more economically literate citizens and politicians able to make tough choices.

.David Smith nails it in this piece on our mounting debt problems. Note the corollary that the fiscal rules are not fit for purpose follows so clearly. CamEcon Stephen Millard

Thanks Jagjit

My Times piece: In which, as the eurozone prepares to welcome its 21st member, I correct some myths about the EU economy, but warn of the dangers of Trump’s unwarranted tariffs: Europe needs faster economic growth, not an unnecessary trade war thetimes.com/article/0d59fe…

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.6% in the 12 months to June 2025, up from 3.4% in the 12 months to May. Read the full article ➡️ ons.gov.uk/economy/inflat…

Commenting on today’s inflation figures for June 2025, ONS Acting Chief Economist Richard Heys said: