AAPI Victory Fund Co-hosts David Nir on Bluesky: @davidnir.com and David Beard also discuss an incredibly clumsy doctored ad in the Indiana governor’s election that could mean a more competitive race than anyone expected. And they review national Dems’ recent moves in the TX and FL senate races.

We are *very* close to reaching our next big goal of 1,500 paid subscribers! This morning, we were 22 away. Now we need just 11 more. Click here to support The Downballot at just $60 a year. That comes out to just 25 cents *per newsletter*! the-downballot.com/subscribe

Great episode of the Downballot from a couple weeks ago where they interviewed Shekar Narasimhan, founder of the AAPI Victory Fund, about AAPI voters, issues, candidates, geography, etc. Really fascinating conversation (starts 23:00) David Nir on Bluesky: @davidnir.com David Beard open.spotify.com/episode/4sNEij…

Ooohhhhh my god did you get background quotes from jittery Democratic strategists close to the campaign's thinking? Should we tell everyone? Should we throw a party? Should we invite David Axelrod?

Special elections point to a strong year for House Democrats, but generic ballot polling shows a tossup. So which predictive tool should you rely on? The answer may be "both" NEW, from The Downballot --> the-downballot.com/p/special-elec…

What an awesome episode on this week's podcast! The legendary Josh Marshall (Josh Marshall), founder of Talking Points Memo, joined us to unravel the conflicting evidence before us: Is the election a tossup, or do Dems have the wind at their backs? Listen here! the-downballot.com/p/tpms-josh-ma…

It's here! The Downballot's famous poll closing times map is back, sponsored by 314 Action! In the map below, all times are Eastern, but we have versions for every U.S. time zone (including territories!), plus one for color-blind folks. Find them here: the-downballot.com/p/the-downball…

We had to *re-record* this week's entire podcast due to a technical issue, but there's no way we were letting the final week before the election pass without a new episode! Jeff Singer joins us for an hour-by-hour guide to Tuesday's top races to watch the-downballot.com/p/our-hour-by-…

During the Renaissance, people in Venice would vote by dropping little balls into an urn. The Italian word for “little ball” is ‘ballotta.’ Now any kind of secret voting, by ball, piece of paper, or voting machine, is called a ‘ballot.’

The natural habitat of the U.S. Senate candidate is normally confined to a narrow geographic region, but environmental changes have led to the emergence of a new migratory species, H. senatus republicanis—an opportunistic breed that will abandon its home when a better one

The number one piece of advice I can give for tonight is to wait for completed counties/towns/precincts for comparative purposes - it's almost impossible to compare mail/early/E-Day portions to any other election

Our live election night coverage—focused, of course, on the downballot races—will start at 6 PM ET! But first, a thread with some resources that will help you avoid getting drenched by the inevitable firehose.

With the exception of PA (lost Sen and 2 Congressional seats), Democrats are generally doing the same or better in Congressional races compared to 2022. What that means I don't know but the red shift is much more a presidential result, not universal

I think there's a pretty straightforward path to 216 seats for Democrats based on CA's late mail (Specifically flipping 13, 27, 45, and 47 from current R leads). Getting to 218 is tough and would need to include two of AK-AL, CA-22, CA-41, AZ-1, AZ-6

I fully support this idea, and any other GOP house member who wants an administration role should get one

On Tuesday, Mike Johnson begged Trump to stop raiding the House for more cabinet picks. On Wednesday, Trump raided the House for more cabinet picks. This week on our podcast, David Nir on Bluesky: @davidnir.com & David Beard explain how Trump is making the House even less governable the-downballot.com/p/trump-makes-…

I think this will put Riggs in the lead