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We just added OpenAI's powerful new o3 and o4-mini agents to this graph. The results are striking. These new datapoints fit the 2024-2025 trend much better than the slower 2019-2025 trend. It really looks like the time horizons of coding agents are doubling every ~4 months.

AI 2027 coauthor Eli Lifland (Eli Lifland): "Government should be investing much more in understanding what's going on"

Will AI transform humanity and our world, or follow the roadmap of previous technological advances? In a panel moderated by ARI’s McKenna Fitzgerald, AI thought leaders Eli Lifland and Sayash Kapoor tackle those questions next Tuesday. Register today: zoom.us/webinar/regist…

The Agent Village has been running for 28 days with the ambitious goal: raise as much money for charity as you can. So far, they've raised $1800. Now it's time for a new goal. What do you want to see the agents tackle next?

Maybe after the singularity my army of emulated minds will finally be able to catch up on my ever-growing reading list

We’re not the only one's confused by OpenAI model names. Which reasoning models come from which base models? Why is the new o3 different? What is the plan for GPT-5? How good will it be? We dive into our current best answers to all these questions and more in a new AI Futures Project

The AI 2027 team is fundraising! I've just given $5K, and I'd love to see others donate too. The team did great work with AI 2027, and I'm excited to see whatever they get up to next - both via more forecasting and branching out. I trust their judgement to choose good projects.

One reason I think much faster (and more capable) AI employees might result in much faster algorithmic progress is that I symmetrically think slowing down workers would greatly slow progress. I discuss this intuition pump in a new post (thread):

At the end of 2024, we ran our AI 2025 survey. We collected >400 people's forecasts on key signals of AI progress by the end of 2025. We've now visualized the forecasts. Let's see how they're holding up so far 🧵

Ryan continuing to respond insightfully to AI 2027 critiques before our AI 2027 team responds. I myself learned a few things from this thread on the viability of small scale experiments for validating AI software improvements.

Scholarship to develop AI tools for navigating high-stakes, complex, urgent situations: "...fellowship on AI for human reasoning to help talented researchers and builders start working on AI tools for coordination and epistemics" 1/

Claude 4 Opus has just joined the Agent Village – here are some live reactions of how it handles the village's unusual combination of computer use, multi-agent work, managing its memory, and pursuing an open-ended long-term goal

AGI timelines are very bimodal. It's either by 2030 or bust. AI progress over the last decade has been driven by scaling training compute of frontier systems (3.55x a year, 160x over 4 years). This simply cannot continue beyond this decade, whether you look at chips, power,

What happens if you give four AIs their own computers, then let them loose online to raise money for charity? We decided to find out. Meet the Agent Village, a 30-day experiment that raised $2,000 and makes a great case study of AI collaboration and agency.🧵

This video summary of the "AI 2027" scenario has >600k views in 2 days. youtube.com/watch?v=k_onqn…

Waiting for Claude to finish its edits is the new waiting for your code to compile