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Inflation: A Guide for Users and Losers makes the FT Best Summer Books List: ft.com/content/025b75… Just sayin...if you have beach day coming up...

Btw, Richard Tice MP 🇬🇧 is entirely correct. The BoE should pay an average interest rate on reserves of close to zero. Governor Bailey fails to even mention tiered reserves - an essential feature of modern central banking - or the effects on financial stability of the procyclicality of

Delighted to have Mark Blyth join me on the podcast this week to discuss his new book, 𝑰𝒏𝒇𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏: 𝒂 𝑮𝒖𝒊𝒅𝒆 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝑳𝒐𝒔𝒆𝒓𝒔 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑼𝒔𝒆𝒓𝒔. We had a great conversation on the political economy of inflation and the challenges that lie ahead for policymakers. We

I hadn’t realised Bessent could be on the FOMC for 14 years. He won’t do as he’s told. That is when he breaks ranks with Trump.

And probably wouldn’t matter that much either …

I remain amazed how political commentary on the bond market still winds me up, because it so often treats that market like a political actor rather than the market that it actually is. So I've just read, from one of the best political commentators in the UK, that 1/4

It also goes uncommented that in June gilts had been the best performing of major bond markets, likely biasing beliefs and ‘positioning’.

Why bother voting? And what’s the point in democracy, anyway?! Eric Lonergan and I shoot the shit, discussing in the latest dispatch of But This Time It’s Different (link ⬇️):

Pod here 🚀: open.spotify.com/episode/3y2LVF…

The other annoying dimension is that trade deals simply don’t matter v much.

So interest rates going to zero? And why are we creating net jobs now?

Good for productivity. Bad for new grads? "Vacancies in AI-exposed roles dropped 38% in the three months to May compared with the same period in 2022, almost twice the decline seen elsewhere." bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

Unemployment up, rates down

Great post from Seth Benzell - the LA-atic Stranger on AI and the fiscal outlook. Required reading. My hunch, interest rates would fall first - a lot - but let’s see! They rose during the internet boom. open.substack.com/pub/empiricraf…

"..not mentioning that those surpluses led to the end-of-boom in 2000 and the recession of 2001 – a phenomenon once known to economists as 'fiscal drag'." 7/

Important read. These are choices.

Also, unintended consequences: UK process results is terrible fiscal myopia.

This really helps address national problems.

Actually sacking Powell would be messy and counterproductive. Talking about it ad nauseam is highly effective click bait.

Among the many ironies, stablecoins are narrow banking.