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"Progress isn't made by early risers. It's made by lazy men trying to find easier ways to do something." ~Robert Heinlein

A masterpiece

New NBER: "The Labor Supply Curve is Upward Sloping: The Effects of Immigrant-Induced Demand Shocks" nber.org/papers/w33930#… "We find large, positive, and persistent effects of [immigrant] demand exposure to EU expansion on native worker income."

The House and Senate are still negotiating over key tax provisions. Where they end up is a question with meaningful distributional consequences. In what is maybe our most "for the real nerds" reconcilation piece so far, here's a provision-level distribution analysis:

Difficult for the Fed. OT1H, at this point much more evidence that tariffs are putting ⬆️pressure on prices than weakening the labor market. OTOH, you as a policymaker want to be forward looking, & if you think tariffs are 1-time supply shocks to prices then you weight them less.

"Layoffs From Trump Tariffs Ripple Across the Auto-Parts Industry" bloomberg.com/news/articles/… "Other companies have decided they would rather stop producing in the US than deal with the constant flux."

Extra points for any Ranked Choice Voting explainer that works in "Condorcet"

EU readies retaliatory tariffs to secure better trade deal with Trump on.ft.com/4eBW6IN

Toy inflation is at an all-time high, as new tariffs kick in washingtonpost.com/business/2025/…

Default dear Brutus lies not in R*s but in ourselves.

Polls once again having a pretty terrible night.

In which Neil Irwin asks me and Kent Smetters about the new Council of Economic Advisers growth estimates and we can all agree that yes...those are numbers they wrote down on a page and that exist on that page

It becomes the safest big city in America?