Why have Gulf states fallen increasingly silent on Israel’s nuclear arsenal—even as they have decried proliferation elsewhere? Ludovica Castelli’s sharp memo explores this strategic ambiguity, where opacity is tolerated or even rewarded and diplomacy becomes tacit complicity.

Diplomats in Gulf (& far beyond) mourn “escalation” yet ignore structural privilege behind Israel’s impunity. Castelli unpacks discursive choreography shielding Israel’s nuclear status—while Iran remains under scrutiny. A perfect companion to Elbahtimy’s call for nuclear equity

Israel’s 13 June strikes on Iran show how coercive counter-proliferation can spiral into endless war. Tytti Erästö’s new #SALAM memo maps a different path: Gulf-led regional non-proliferation cooperation. prismeinitiative.org/blog/israeli-a… Tytti Erästö SIPRI

As U.S. support to Israel accelerates, systematically violating international law and pushing diplomacy to the brink, what if Iran and Gulf Arab states refused to be held hostage by global power games, and started setting their own norms and rules?

When international law is sidelined and great powers only escalate, accelerating norm erosion, regional actors face a choice: wait and react, or lead and reshape the game. Tytti Erästö latest SALAM memo urges the latter, with a plan grounded in realism and #restraint 👇 SIPRI

Excited to share insights from my new book Qatar and the UAE: Diverging Paths to Regional and Global Power in this upcoming virtual talk hosted by the Middle East Institute – NUS tomorrow! Info and registration here: mei.nus.edu.sg/event/book-tal…

Less than an hour to go :)

SIPRI's Tytti Erästö argues for alternative paths in the Gulf in this PRISME (@prismeorg.bsky.social) paper ⬇️

New #SALAM memo by Almuntaser Albalawi: From Asymmetry to Autonomy → a powerful rethink of Middle East arms control, spotlighting reciprocity, inclusivity, agency & normativity across regional nuclear politics. #NonProliferation #MiddleEast prismeinitiative.org/blog/asymmetry…

ICYMI - Here is the link to the video of the event: m.youtube.com/watch?v=0xiby2… Thank you again to Jean-Loup Samaan and Middle East Inst-NUS for this great opportunity to talk about my work!

Arms Control in the #MiddleEast keeps falling short. Why? Is the #nuclear proliferation landscape shifting -and are regional perspectives changing too? I take a closer look in my latest piece for PRISME (@prismeorg.bsky.social). Grateful to Dr. Emma Soubrier (@esoubrier.bsky.social) and Coralie Pison Hindawi for their input.

Almuntaser Albalawi also argues for broader regional engagement: “Gulf Arab states—particularly since the rapprochement with Iran—have both the incentives and opportunity to take a more active role in promoting sustainable, regionally owned solutions to nuclear risks” Almuntaser Albalawi

Héloïse Fayet unpacks Iran’s evolving nuclear rhetoric, reflecting deep strategic recalibration “in response to erosion of its conventional deterrence, heightened regional insecurity, & perceived failure of international non-proliferation regime” Héloïse Fayet prismeinitiative.org/blog/evolving-…

A very insightful piece! “The rhetorical shift is both a signal to adversaries and a form of performative deterrence that mirrors escalation observed elsewhere, notably in nuclear-armed states.”

Recent framing of Iran as a threat to Europe despite limited missile range & lack of hostility reflects partial alignment w/ US policy incl. in parallel leniency toward Israel which damages credibility on international stage & accelerates erosion of global norms, Héloïse Fayet argues

Iran’s nuclear strategy is shaped by mistrust, military threats & shifting alliances. In this new SALAM memo, Javad Heiran-Nia & Sharare Abdolhossein Zade argue: diplomacy must come first—before the spiral becomes irreversible. Read here: prismeinitiative.org/blog/navigatin… Javad Heirannia

“The window for diplomacy narrowed, if not slammed shut. The memo revisits Iran’s strategic calculus at the time of Muscat talks and considers how rapidly evolving regional & global landscape, incl renewed threats of force, is reshaping Tehran’s nuclear options—and Washington’s.”

Some key insights: “The most pragmatic path forward is one of segmented reciprocity (…) + “As highlighted in the broader #SALAM memo series, decentering the West’s securitized framing and enabling inclusive diplomacy is essential for long-term stability”

Author copies arriving soon! Can’t wait to hold “Qatar and the UAE: Diverging Paths to Global and Regional Power” in my hands! Have you ordered (or read) your copy yet? Your thoughts and reviews mean a lot! Happy to send ordering links via Lynne Rienner or ScriptBooks (UK).

After June 2025 strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, Gulf nuclear diplomacy is at a crossroads. Can shared risks become a foundation for cooperation? Mehran Haghirian explores these issues in latest #SALAM paper prismeinitiative.org/publications/n… Mehran Haghirian #GulfSecurity #NuclearDiplomacy