Ethan BdM (@ethanbdm) 's Twitter Profile
Ethan BdM

@ethanbdm

Ethan Bueno de Mesquita. Studying conflict, accountability, and political economy @HarrisPolicy.

"A tragic waste of intellectual potential." - R2

ID: 49977203

linkhttp://voices.uchicago.edu/ethanbdm calendar_today23-06-2009 13:40:32

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Even though we are still 18 months from the super intelligence that can do everything, my sister's family let ChatGPT choose my Hanukkah gift and this is the result.

Even though we are still 18 months from the super intelligence that can do everything, my sister's family let ChatGPT choose my Hanukkah gift and this is the result.
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New episode of the Not Another Politics Podcast for your listening pleasure! effectivegov.uchicago.edu/podcast/is-the…

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Just in time to benefit from deregulation, the Not Another Politics Podcast moves onto the blockchain in a new episode with Andy Hall. We welcome what we hope will be many new crypto listeners. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wha…

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Have you completed at least three years of full-time, professional work in the U.S. public sector? You could be eligible for the Public Sector Scholarship for degree programs at Harris Policy! Learn more about the opportunity at an info session Friday: bit.ly/4h2mzPd

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With respect to collecting data from episodes of reality TV shows to do causal inference on the effects of one group of people's behavior on anothers, it seems very important to note that those shows are edited to create a compelling story.

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"Please describe some properties of a market that, in your view, affect the incidence of a tariff?" would be a solid question to ask during advice and consent hearings.

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I suspect most of these doctors had stats. But, for many, conditional probability as taught in stats doesn't sink in or doesn't get linked in their minds to this setting. We wrote Thinking Clearly with Data to try to rectify precisely such problems. press.princeton.edu/books/paperbac…

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Although failure of equilibrium existence in one "little" corner of the parameter space of the model I've spent the past two years working on turns out to be true, I am not yet sufficiently evolved to see it as beautiful.

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I think tylercowen and Ezra Klein would be interested in studies about how (high) housing prices and (overly tight) regulations appear to lower fertility. Links in next post.

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I've been using ChatGPT (both o3 and 4.0 depending on task) to help copy edit a new paper. While improving writing, it routinely introduces mistakes into previously correct proofs. But it also finds errors and logical holes I missed. It contains multitudes.

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We did a Not Another Politics Podcast on the Trump administration’s approach to universities and how it builds on the Obama administration’s. With Jacob Gersen on his and Jeannie Suk Gersen's great papers, "The Sex Bureaucracy" & "The Six Bureaucracy". podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/is-…

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Great thread. As Jacob points out, there is a serious theoretical and empirical literature on voter irrationality, partisan intoxication, implications for accountability and democratic performance, etc. The conclusions Caplan wants to draw do not follow from his evidence.