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The federal government gets a lot more income tax revenue from Democratic Congressional districts than Republican ones (these are pre-redistricting, because tax numbers for current districts aren't available yet) bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

The odds of a balanced budget within 4 years: 0.00% No one in the administration or Congress has produced anything close to a real plan. Because it would require eviscerating Social Security, Medicare, and defense, and/or hiking income taxes by 70%.

Ok here is my John Feinstein thread. It's gonna be long. I saw someone praise him yesterday by saying he never made it about himself, which struck me as just about exactly wrong. He ALWAYS made it about himself. It's who he was, at least as long as I knew him

Still not compelling evidence of lower federal spending from last year. Overall noninterest spending YTD is running ahead of 2023 & 2024 (left). If you take out the big COLA'd programs & also FDIC (which skews comparisons to last year due to SVB), 2025 still ahead of 2024 (right)

This is a totally nonsensical set of statements. JP Morgan alone spends about 30x what the IRS does on IT modernization annually (And serves fewer people of course, since IRS deals with every household and business every year.)

So what are everyone's plans for celebrating the EITC's 50th birthday this weekend? Bake a trapezoid-shaped cake? Get drunk and jump in the Tidal Basin? Boost spending on big ticket consumer durables?

I would say that most social scientists have a very low opinion of most social science research. The reason this isn’t discussed publicly is not because everyone is trying to protect the social sciences, but rather because you don’t want to seem mean in a low stakes fight

link to article here, i am prepared for the hate of the anti-property-tax losers, i am heavily armed with GOOD GRAPHS and GEORGIST SLOGANS ifstudies.org/blog/cutting-p…

Welp guess it's time for another tariff model run.

What they thought about birthright citizenship in 1866 — from the US Senate debate over the Civil Rights Act of 1866, which was followed a couple of months later by the 14th amendment. (Gift link in a subsequent post)

Can President Trump just end birthright citizenship? Justin Fox explains its complicated origin 📷

TCJA did a lot of good things and a lot of debatable things. The one provision that pretty much every tax expert and economist on the left and right agrees was terrible is not only being extended in full, but expanded . What a joke.

My markup of population change in Pennsylvania. (underlying map from the PA State Data Center)

How federal spending has changed since Trump took office