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🇺🇸 The Senate Finance Committee released its own provisions for the OBBBA overnight, including Section 899. Any tax increase would be capped at 15% (instead of 20%), while portfolio interest would be explicitly exempted. finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…

The CBO estimates the House tax bill would be more expensive once taking into account its economic effects (i.e., the dynamic score) The effects of stronger economic growth over the 2025-34 period are more than offset by the costs of higher interest rates, to the tune of a net

🇸🇪 The Riksbank cut rates to 2%, with their forecast entailing « some probability of another cut this year ». The economic recovery « has lost momentum », and inflation is expected to be « somewhat lower » than in the previous forecast.

🇪🇺 First time some measures of underlying inflation in the euro area reach 2% in nearly four years.

The story in the April TIC data is the lack of new foreign demand for US Treasuries/ US bonds, not official sales -- total official holdings didn't really change (private holdings dipped a bit but nothing huge) 1/

🇨🇭The SNB cuts rates to zero and reintroduces tiered remuneration for sight deposits. snb.ch/public/publica…

🇳🇴 The Norges Bank unexpectedly cut rates, noting that “a restrictive monetary policy is still needed but that it is now appropriate to begin a cautious normalisation of the policy rate.” norges-bank.no/en/topics/Mone…

Et si les investisseurs boudaient la dette américaine ? C'est le podcast de Les Echos avec Guillaume Benoit et avec Frederik Ducrozet Pictet Group lesechos.fr/finance-marche…

🇫🇷🇪🇺 ECB gotta hike.

Les marchés et le risque d'une "shadow Fed" Nommer le successeur de Powell dès Septembre créerait une situation lose-lose-lose = perdante pour Powell + perdante pour son successeur désigné + perdante pour Trump Avec Frederik Ducrozet dans #SmartBourse sur B SMART 4Change

🇺🇸 Tariffs revenues came in at a $320bn annual rate in June, not fully passed through yet but also before any substitution and growth effects. Huge uncertainty over tariffs cruising speed and how it will impact the net effect of fiscal policy.

You should read both 👇