How do you square this data with the fact all VCs say they “led” their firm’s investment in <outlier company> 😂

The browser is the IDE for our personal lives. Current crop of AI browsers still circling around autocomplete and chat product constructs.

You know that feeling right after getting click-baited and knowing the algorithm will now bombard you with that thing until you die

Everything has a parallel - vibe coding is the next “no-code,” will create tons of value for internal tools but likely overestimated as a replacement for large scale software apps

The funny thing is everyone that has actually managed money knows how hard it is to generate 3x net

We are moving from a world where the ‘best companies don’t need your capital’ to one where the ‘best companies don’t need any capital’

Guess the stock

Anyone debating consensus or non consensus should probably get back to work

Imagine the dogma of customers when you tell them it’s general and it can do many things. Maybe some reason that code gen has taken off vs it does “many things”

Investors often talk about gut instinct when it comes to errors of omission which leads to making more bets and trust in power law (to make up for when gut instinct is wrong). Often leads to more focus on betting on the jockey but skill and luck are hard to pull apart

How do I put money into the TikTok deal? This valuation is a joke.

I may be getting more calls and letters about the QQQ upcoming proxy vote than during the last election cycle

The e-commerce storefront is going away. Merchants will maintain a direct site (and maybe able to spend a lot less on building / maintaining it) but the volume of sales driven by their storefront will be dwarfed by marketplaces and eventually, agents.

You’ll never be perfect, but you can always be better - Warren Buffett “A few final thoughts”

Sometimes people forget there is a difference between a big business and a great business. Given capital availability, many OK businesses were able to scale to be large but the fundamentals of organic growth, retention, operating leverage are not good enough to continue scaling

Don’t be someone else’s option bet

When 17x revenue is seen as too cheap / brutal valuation…

Lines everyone uses and no one believes: “We’re not fundraising.” Followed by “Here’s our data room”

Didn’t work out great for Sollozzo and the Police Chief

King making and “Capital as a moat” are things VCs + founders tell themselves to make up for a lack of PMF