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Initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped 33% to 281k last week.The worst is very much yet to come.

ALERT: Michigan adds private lab results to its tally. #coronavirus case count now up to 336

Michael S. Derby "A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough." nber.org/cycles/dec2008… from announcement of 2007-09 recession from NBER it was released a full year after recession started, why Sahm rule is helpful and more timely

The economist Kenneth Rogoff just now on PBS News "Do I worry about debt if we have to spend $5 trillion to get out of this in the space of a few months? Who cares. Do I worry about inflation? No.

Thinking that fiscal policy needs to be on the order of $3-4 trillion total over the next three months, roughly split in thirds between SMEs, households, and state and local? That seems to be the numbers consistent with various policy proposals floating around? Too low?

I am not retweeting this to scare anybody. Well, actually I am. To scare Washington. The US economy is disintegrating -- especially small busines -- and needs massive financial support ASAP.

There wasn’t a single WARN notice filed this week by a Michigan employer for layoffs of more than 100 employees at the same company related to the #coronavirus. That suggests that the layoffs this week were primarily at small businesses and widespread. crainsdetroit.com/economy/80000-…

7/ The plan does not replace individual checks to lower-income people, expanded UI, help for some big firms, or state budget aid. America needs an all-of-the-above $2-3 trillion support plan. Preferably agreed to this weekend or next week.

Final/ We must not let a once-in-a-century pandemic create historic unemployment, destroy otherwise viable businesses, and turn a short-but-costly recession into a long #depression.

ICYMI: #Michigan #localgov officials are concerned that a new #recession could have a big impact on their service delivery and government operations. myumi.ch/7Z3nm

Are you an essential employee that has to go to work? Use our table below for some explanation. bit.ly/3adpxyx Exempted industries represent roughly 1M of the state’s 4.3M jobs, according to a Bridge Magazine analysis. #CoronavirusMichigan #MichiganCoronavirus

More evidence of Coronavirus crippling the economy. There is not a single vehicle final assembly plant in the U.S. that is running this morning.

NEW: Michigan’s self-employed workers, gig workers, 1099-independent contractors and low-wage workers affected by COVID-19 can apply for federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance beginning Monday, April 13 at 8AM.

There are so many things we can do to triage the economic pain inflected by COVID - the most effective and least costly include minor changes to behavior that dampen but don’t destroy economic activity. They also reduce the fear of public spaces. Masks, tests, tracing.

Tune in tomorrow for our PF seminar. Gabriel Ehrlich will present on “Public Debt Levels and Real Interest Rates: Causal Evidence from Parliamentary Elections” joint with Aditi Thapar. @WilliamGale2 will discuss! Register here: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regist…

New #FEDSNote: Caregiving for children and parental labor force participation during the pandemic: go.usa.gov/xe2vP #EconTwitter

Forthcoming article by Rudi Bachmann Gabriel Ehrlich Ying Fan, Dimitrije Ruzic and Benjamin Leard “Firms and Collective Reputation: a Study of the Volkswagen Emissions Scandal” EEA @OUPEconomics doi.org/10.1093/jeea/j…

A U-M study found that replacing the nation’s oldest school buses could lead to 1.3 million fewer absences per year by reducing exposure to diesel exhaust fumes, which can exacerbate respiratory illnesses and other conditions. More from Michigan News: myumi.ch/byNV9

The need for quality adjustment for price indices is pervasive, from Gabriel Ehrlich, John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, David S Johnson, Ed Olivares, Luke W. Pardue, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Laura Zhao nber.org/papers/w31309

Machine learning enables hedonic price indices at scale, from Michael Cafarella, Gabriel Ehrlich, Tian Gao, John Haltiwanger, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Laura Zhao nber.org/papers/w31315