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Trying to make sense of the output of the model

It was great presenting my work with Fabio and Daisoon at the ESM during the joint conference with SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum and Bruegel. I learned a lot.

I really enjoyed working on this chapter with a great team! A particular highlight was engaging with Adrien Auclert, Matthew Rognlie and Hannes Malmberg — we built on an extension of their paper (web.stanford.edu/~aauclert/demo…), and they were incredibly generous and insightful throughout.

I'm thrilled to see this tweet! I learned a lot from comments by the editor and the referees. It all started with me knocking on the door of Giorgio Primiceri to tell him "I think I have a good idea".

Our new WEO out. The global economy is entering a new era. Effective tariff rates reach levels not seen in a century. We project global growth at 2.8% for 2025—a major downgrade reflecting escalating trade tensions and high policy uncertainty. imf.org/en/Blogs/Artic…

Looking forward to reading many op eds in the Financial Times on how the study of electrical engineering is in a crisis. Researchers should go back to reading Maxwell’s Elementary Treatise on Electricity

🌍 El Instituto Economía UC y CLAPES UC te invitan a la presentación de dos capítulos del World Economic Outlook del FMI. 📍6 de mayo, 13:40-14:40 hrs, sala AE102, Campus San Joaquín. Presentarán Galip Kemal Ozhan (FMI) y Nicolás Fernández-Arias (FMI). Inscripciones: bit.ly/4jRPs29

📢📢Very glad to have our paper on how specialized #banks helped U.S. firms reroute their supply chains after the 2018-2019 #tariffs out NBER. And many thanks to my amazing co-authors Laura Alfaro, Masha Brussevich, and Camelia Minoiu A short 🧵and the link to the paper👇:

Zero-sum thinking feels everywhere lately, on trade, taxes, you name it. Does it define the current zeitgeist? Strikingly, younger generations are more zero-sum than older ones in many rich countries like the US. Chart from the Financial Times on our paper socialeconomicslab.org/research/worki…

🚀 PhD in Economics @ESADE (Barcelona/Sant Cugat)! Work with me & Ioana Schiopu on macro, labour & public econ 4-yr fully funded | start ≤ 1 Oct 2025 | deadline 15 Aug 2025 Send CV + docs → [email protected] Call attached 👇 #EconJobs #PhD #Macro

Our new #VoxEU column on how nonbank financial institutions affect the transmission of monetary and macroprudential policies to corporate lending. Check it out! cepr.org/voxeu/columns/…

Forthcoming in the JEL: "How Do Central Banks Control Inflation? A Guide for the Perplexed" by Laura Castillo-Martinez and Ricardo Reis. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…

Updated draft of our paper on developing a framework to study sanctions--with Fabio Ghironi and Daisoon Kim

"When BoJ does policy, no one asks 'How different are Okinawa and Hokkaido?'--euro area is a well defined economic entity." Thought-provoking presentation from Refet Gürkaynak youtu.be/mgikNXm7118?si…… via YouTube

1)📢 Excited to share a new paper with the awesome Damien Capelle "Unbalanced Financial Globalization" (available on my website - link in bio) We explore how uneven capital account opening since the 1970s reshaped global capital allocation, GDP, and inequality. Thread 👇

If you want to listen to a short podcast on "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Sanctions," you can do so at dropbox.com/scl/fi/2xuhjp5… The podcast was generated by NotebookLM. #International #Trade #Macroeconomics #Sanctions >

This is terrible and hilarious: authors included hidden prompts in manuscript pdfs that instructed LLMs to generate positive reviews. Another sign we're heading for a garbage future where all textual content is generated *and* read by AI.

If you’re interested in how demographic factors shape growth and productivity (and you should be, as low fertility, aging and migration are first order issues), you may want to take a look at the new IMF note prepared for the G20 South Africa. You can download it here: