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This was an interesting one to make!

A tear falls from Anthony Downs, as the internet complains that this phrase is too obscure.

Soon!

We are hosting the Formal Models of Conflict Conference in the fall! See below for the announcement. Deadline is in five weeks.

My very first co-authored article with William Spaniel has just been published online in the CMPS. We modify the standard crisis bargaining theory to account for the choice between multiple military strategies. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/07…

Just a week away to the deadline for the Formal Models of Conflict Conference!

Now have a full cover, with description and blurbs!

Third, Işıl İdrisoğlu (she/her) and William Spaniel explore the role of information asymmetries as a cause of the conflict. Read about how Putin’s overconfidence in Russia’s military capabilities and popularity in Ukraine influenced his decision to invade here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.11…

We are hosting the fourth annual Formal Models of Conflict Conference in the fall! Call for papers is below. Deadline is in five weeks. Here's the submission portal: forms.gle/LqiTduTHX6LK3v…

Tomorrow is the deadline!

Launched a side channel today! My quick thoughts on the changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine: youtube.com/watch?v=5JJT8C…

Keith Kellogg has been named Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine. What does this mean for the war? I covered his peace plan way back in August, in the context of the Kursk offensive. (Skip to 10:11 if you especially care about that part.) youtu.be/qDA2337lsJg

A look into the peace plan from Special Envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg and what Trump has done over the first few days of his presidency. TL;DW: Kellogg's general plan is well-grounded in the theory of war, but implementing it will bring challenges. youtube.com/watch?v=0yllJX…

Big video today at a critical time. I went to NATO HQ a couple of weeks ago. The topic: the risk of a U.S. withdrawal. Hear straight from my question to Secretary General Mark Rutte about it. youtu.be/_QooUTuqf2A

My third feature-length documentary is now live! I look at the why Western countries lost interest in conquering territory eighty years ago, and how the Trump administration is revisiting the international order. youtube.com/watch?v=XPno-0…