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An under looked aspect of the Iran-Israel war is that Israel has prompted generational change in Iranian military leadership. It is hard to overstate how significant this turnover is for Iranian decision-making and how the regime works in general. 🧵

The hedge fund manager betting on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Tracy Alloway and I caught up with Iran-focused investor Maciej Wojtal about the latest in a market that’s almost impossible to get data on, let alone trade on, especially in a time of war podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd…

The military option was never a military solution. Pressure will now be for a deal that is tougher than anything offered prewar, *but* this deal must also force Iran back into cooperating with the IAEA, while overcoming Iranian suspicions that they won't be bombed again.

Polymarket odds on Hormuz reached 40%? lol, lmao even

Seems that Trump might be satisfied if the issue just went away for the remainder of his term. A deal was already a heavy lift before the war.

Iran in no rush--makes sense, as preventing fresh escalation is likely a goal. Also in keeping with strategy of using coop with IAEA as potential leverage. Direction of travel seems pretty clear tho.

Trump reiterates his claim that he forestalled an Israeli assassination attempt on Khamenei. Due to the lack of gratitude expressed by Khamenei, Trump says he is giving up work on sanctions relief (which he claims he had been working on earlier this week).

Having a real hard time accepting "Israel is the new hegemon" thesis. Normally, a hegemon does not require the active and continuous support of another state to maintain its power projection capabilities. The dynamic fits "proxy" better than "hegemon."

Credible military threat only "works" if you commit to doing it over and over again.

The risk to the Strait of Hormuz will remain low given the disparity in forces between Iran versus the U.S. and its allies. While the regime may take some steps to harass tanker traffic, it would only do so in a limited fashion and as a last resort, said Gregory Brew. Watch the

Araghchi calling Trump "Daddy" is somehow worse than war.

Rouhani certainly thinks this is his moment (in characteristic fashion). No doubting the ambition. Question is whether he's got the juice. I sort of doubt it.