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Some preliminary analysis of the NJ gov primary: Latinos didn't play a major role in Ciattarelli's win. Big margins for him in low-income counties, but he struggled with rich voters. He did worse in high-income, Latino counties like Union, that shifted 11.4% to the right in '24.

Yet another reminder of the weird relationship b/w MHI & 2024 results. In NH, GOP Governor Ayotte outran Trump with high-income, but also rural, poorer voters who tend to like more traditional republicans in statewide races. The U-shaped trend line is a constant.

Interesting fact: some of counties where Haley did better actually shifted in Trump’s favor in November from 2020. The U-shaped trend shows how Harris failed to win over enough critical Haley voters, particularly - but not limited to - in Philly suburbs.

Like in PA, in NH the towns where Haley did best actually shifted significantly to the right in from 2024. Those are mainly rural counties in the south-west and the north with low income that prefer more traditional conservatives, but still shifted in Trump’s favor. Remarkable

Even in Vermont, the correlation b/w Trump-Haley margins and 2020->2024 shift isn’t exactly linear. The trend reaches a plateau as Haley margins get bigger, suggesting the same difficulties for Harris to win over Haley voters seen in PA and NH

Even in Iowa, a U-shaped trend line shows how the counties that supported Haley the most shifted significantly in Trump’s favor in November. Harris wasn’t incisive enough in some parts of the Driftless Areas that supported Haley and with urban/suburban voters

In South Carolina the correlation b/w Haley margins and 2020->2024 shift is linear. That’s definitely due to the state being more evangelical and less diverse than others. Yet, Charleston county did shift 7 points rightward in November despite voting for Haley.

Participation here is quite impressive. No wonder Mamdani odds on polymarket rose by 7% in the last 2 days.

In Massachusetts the correlation b/w Trump-Haley margins and 2020->2024 shift is linear. Haley ran up her margins in Boston suburbs, where Harris performed best. Notably, Trump margins in primary were pretty big in urban areas, where he made big gains in November

Early voting drastically increased from 2021, with The Bronx registering a more moderate spike (+50% compared, to +100% in Manhattan for instance) in a blow to Cuomo, who will need high Election Day turnout in a neighborhood that notably shifted 22% in Trump’s favor last fall.

Probably wouldn’t have expected the situation to be that clear tonight. Cuomo has conceded to Mamdani, who pulls off a big upset coming ahead even in the first round.

The only question I what “Haley wing” of the GOP will do after 2028 - depending also on the success of the Trump admin. But it’s clear that “the establishment” in both parties has been decaying for a very long time - probably begging in the mid ‘00s.

In his first article for Elections Daily, Giacomo Pensa takes an in-depth data dive into New England, examining the region's shift from 2020 to 2024 and how the Harris and Trump coalitions evolved. elections-daily.com/2025/06/25/unr…

We're going to talk about New York's mayoral primary soon, but if you like political data science, be sure to read Giacomo Pensa's first article for Elections Daily - a great look at trends in New England, a region that has seen fascinating shifts in the Trump era.

Happy to announce a new partnership with ⁦Elections Daily⁩! Check out my article unraveling Trump’s Gains in New England - a fascinating dynamic of the 2024 election. elections-daily.com/2025/06/25/unr…

Which is very similar of trend of Trump’s gains in 2024 - not only in NYC, nationwide. Like Cuomo, Trump did well in both the lowest- and highest-education areas, while Harris, like Mamdani, was stronger in the middle of the pack.

Nebraska was one of state that shifted the least from 2020 to 2024. Interestingly, in low-diversity areas, whiter counties registered bigger swings - though the corr is weak - but when whites make up less than 80% of the pop, high diversity becomes a strength for Trump.

In Tuesday's NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary, Cuomo performed best in heavily Black and Hispanic neighborhoods across the city, while Mamdani's strongest support was concentrated in northern Brooklyn and western Queens. Mamdani Best Assembly Districts: 🟢 AD-53 (75%, Bushwick &

Emerson poll | 6/24-6/25 RV 2028 Democratic presidential primary Pete Buttigieg 16% Kamala Harris 13% Gavin Newsom 12% AOC 7% Josh Shapiro 7% Bernie Sanders 5% Cory Booker 3% Gretchen Whitmer 3% Andy Beshear 2% JB Pritzker 2% Wes Moore 2% Amy Klobuchar 1% Rahm Emanuel 1% Someone

Sort of bad news for Harris. In the past, losing presidential candidates that didn’t rule out running again - from Gore to Kerry - used to have commanding leads in early primary polls. It’s clear that democrats don’t regard Harris as the leader pro-tempore of the party.