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1/6 The lag conundrum of monetary policy Monetary policy affects activity with a lag. This enormously complicates the task of policy makers, and the design of disinflationary policy.

We have a housing supply problem. We had an even worse housing supply problem in 2019. Cumulative residential investment since 2020Q1 has been $83b higher than CBO had projected. The reason house prices/rent went up so much and are now coming down is about demand.

New #IFDPPaper: In Search of Dominant Drivers of the Real Exchange Rate: federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/i… #EconTwitter

My briefing this week: None of the world's 15 largest economies now have fertility rates over 2.1. The ageing and shrinking of the world will pose a threat to the most disruptive innovation and entrepreneurship, disproportionately pioneered by the young. economist.com/briefing/2023/…

My new book is out for sale! With Markus Brunnermeier, 10 self-contained chapters, each introducing a macro-finance concept, and applying it to two historical crises.

Our estimated real exchange rate driver is orthogonal to business cycles & generates a clear UIP deviation. Just Accepted new paper, "In Search of Dominant Drivers of the Real Exchange Rate" by W. Miyamoto, T. L. Nguyen Thuy-Lan Nguyen, H. Oh Hyunseung Oh zurl.co/jbRH

Firms appear to have moved away from a “just in time” inventory model to one that prioritizes resilience, as reflected in high levels of inventory holdings of intermediate inputs ow.ly/yKBs50PuZ0V

New paper with Choongryul Yang and Chamna Yoon that documents the duration of U.S. land development, quantifies frictions to housing supply in the shorter run, and studies their implications on the housing market.

I actually learned a lot about the real world relevance of our work by reading through this. Thanks for featuring our paper Tracy Alloway.

I dont think people realise quite how broken the planning/permitting situation is in San Francisco In 2022 it took 861 days just to get a permit for building a new home sfchronicle.com/sf/article/hou… The latest number I have for residential in London is 132 days, and in Dallas 14 days

Ok, I have had enough wine to engage with this insane piece. It’s time to get started.

Very very excited to see this paper finally online. My talk at European Central Bank's forum on Central Banking in Sintra is scheduled next Wednesday. In the meantime, here is a quick thread

Motivated by the recent AI boom, Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia and I empirically show that positive news to future U.S. productivity could lead to a stronger dollar as productivity gains expected in the U.S. might not spill over to other advanced economies.

Inspired by James Schmitz's slidedecks on factory-built housing (sites.google.com/site/jamesschm…) and D'Amico, Glaeser, Gyourko, Kerr, Ponzetto on the firm-size distribution in construction, I spot a rare seller of modular and manufactured homes in its natural habitat.

The program for our upcoming annual North American meeting is now online: urbaneconomics.org/meetings/uea20…. #UEA2024, hosted by Georgetown University, features keynotes by Rebecca Diamond & Gordon Hanson and more than 70 paper sessions. To register, visit editorialexpress.com/conference/uea…

2. Stimulating Supply by Shortening Construction Timelines As the old saying goes, time is money. It takes at least twice as long to build the same apartment building in states like California than in states like Texas.

Subdued #euro area performance underscores the multifaceted challenges of #energy dependency, #manufacturing vulnerabilities, and shifting global #trade dynamics. François de Soyres, E Fisgin, J Garcia-Cabo, M Lott, C Machol, K Richards Federal Reserve ow.ly/MhL850UquxL

New at JIE: "Early 20th century American exceptionalism: Production, trade and diffusion of the automobile" by Dong Cheng, Mario J. Crucini, Hyunseung Oh, Hakan Yilmazkuday (HAKAN YILMAZKUDAY) doi.org/10.1016/j.jint…

Japan’s current-account surplus hit a record high in 2024 with the yen’s weakness inflating the value of overseas investment returns trib.al/68CZDDN

Looking forward to SED Meeting in Copenhagen from tomorrow! Come and check out our session on Housing and Rental Markets on Saturday, with Andy Glover and Choongryul Yang. I'll be presenting my recent paper on the "Home Purchase Channel of Expenditure".