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Powell: Not going to rule in or rule out any particular meeting. Officials will “be monitoring, particularly, what does show up in terms of inflation or what does not show up." On the labor market: “We watch very carefully for signs of unexpected weakness.”

Coming up on the last day of the #ECBForum: - session on non-bank financial intermediaries - session on new industrial developments and international trade - panel on central bank communications - a discussion on tapping into Europe’s growth potential europa.eu/!9F4cq3

The German economy has repeatedly been referred to as the "sick man of Europe" in recent years. How does the German Council of Economic Experts assess the German economy and productivity development? We look forward to this webinar. Webinar: Is Germany still the "sick man of

Last Monday, I delivered a keynote address titled “Navigating Financial Stability Challenges: From Geoeconomic Fragmentation to AI” at the Eighth Annual AWG and MPAG Workshop, jointly organized by the ESRB and the Bundesbank. The slide deck is available here:

A little over a month ago, Olivier Blanchard & Angel Ubide proposed a framework for creating a deep & liquid market for safe Eurobonds, with no or minimal risk sharing, minimal financial engineering, & no required change in EU fiscal rules. Read it here: piie.com/blogs/realtime…

Congratulations to Alena Wabitsch, winner of this year's #YoungEconomistPrize! Alena’s research focuses on the importance of who communicates policies to the public. The #ECBForum is a great way to connect with young economists. Well done to all the finalists!

Wow, super interesting! "FCI-star" by Ricardo J. Caballero, Tomás E. Caravello, and Alp Simsek. "We introduce FCI*, the neutral level of financial conditions that closes expected output gaps, within a framework where financial conditions and macroeconomic shocks drive economic

One of Top Monetary Conferences of the Year …and we will be there .. #NBER Summer Institute (Monetary Economics)… by Jon Steinsson & Emi Nakamura. BBVA Research at #NBER-SI (3-out-5 years at #NBER SI)👇nber.org/conferences/si… Central Bank Research Association Bank for International Settlements International and Monetary Economics Network Jonathan Benchimol🎗️

Worth reading carefully! "Recent Evolutions in the Global Trade System: From Integration to Strategic Realignment" by Florencia Airaudo, François de Soyres, Alexandre Gaillard, and Ana Maria Santacreu. "This paper analyzes recent structural transformations in the global

Call for papers The CEP/LSE – Warwick Junior Trade Workshop will bring together PhD students in the field of international economics for a day of job market paper presentations and discussions. Submit papers by 27 July. More ➡️ cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/events/ev…

Highly relevant! "Granularity in the current account" by Miriam Koomen and Laurence Wicht. "We present new empirical evidence on the role of granularity in the current account (CA), using a unique and comprehensive firm-level dataset for Switzerland. We show that idiosyncratic

New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP20405 The Unequal Economic Consequences of Carbon Pricing Diego Känzig Diego Känzig Northwestern Economics Northwestern ow.ly/ROCz50WkUwq #CEPR_IMF #CEPR_MG #CEPR_CCE #EconTwitter

The "One Big Beautiful Bill" was adopted in the United States on Thursday. The Tax Foundation estimates that this bill will increase federal debt by around 3 trillion US dollars (or almost ten percent of GDP). Presidents of both parties have favored running high budget deficits

Highly recommended! "No Free Lunch: What it Takes to Build Europe’s Safe Asset" by Pierpaolo Benigno and Edoardo Reviglio. "Any serious plan for European debt mutualisation must confront the reality of already high national tax burdens and focus on establishing genuine EU-level

Food for thought! "Falling interest rates and credit reallocation: lessons from general equilibrium" by Vladimir Asriyan, Luc Laeven, Alberto Martin, Alejandro Van der Ghote, and Victoria Vanasco. "We show that in a canonical model with heterogeneous entrepreneurs, financial

"To understand America today, study the zero-sum mindset." My piece in The Economist this week on how zero-sum thinking arises and why it matters so much for policy and politics. Based on our research at the Social Economics Lab. economist.com/by-invitation/…

Tariffs are shaking up the economy ⚡️ How should the central bank respond to tariffs? Don't miss this fantastic #OnlineSeminar with Louphou Coulibaly (UW–Madison) 👇🏼 #Tarrifs #EconX #EconTwitter #Research #CentralBanking #MonetaryPolicy #TradeWar #Research

Highly relevant! "The US Trade Deficit and Foreign Borrowing How Long Can It Continue?" by Tamim Bayoumi and Joseph E. Gagnon "The most persistent driver of US deficits is the attractiveness of US financial assets to foreign investors owing to the central role of the dollar in

Very valuable! "Quantum-readiness for the financial system: a roadmap" by Raphael Auer, Donna Dodson, Angela Dupont, Maryam Haghighi, Nicolas Margaine, Danica Marsden, Sarah McCarthy and Andras Valko. "Quantum computers may in the future break today's widely used encryption.

Super interesting! "Soft Landing or Stagflation? A Framework for Estimating the Probabilities of Macro Scenarios" by Eric Engstrom. "Recent changes in trade policy and ongoing global economic developments have introduced new sources of uncertainty into the U.S. macroeconomic