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I have always seen betting markets as useless, but they’re worse than that…

I am shocked, shocked I tell you, to discover that the odds being produced by a bunch of gamblers accessing a gray betting market through a VPN might be prone to manipulation.

I see a lot of commentary taking it as given that people feel terrible @ the economy but it depends on what you are looking at--the better measured The Conference Board measure shows consumers feeling pretty good & we know Michigan introduced a negativity bias w/ online sampling

We're just going to leave this here.

* FED'S DALY: HAVEN'T SEEN ANY REASON TO STOP CUTTING RATES * FED'S DALY: DON'T WANT TO SEE LABOR MARKET DETERIORATE FURTHER * FED'S DALY: I EXPECT ADDITIONAL CUTS GOING FORWARD #FOMC 🇺🇸

During the last Trump trade war inflation was running below target & the Fed accommodated the surge in prices, we are not in that world anymore, a trade war means higher prices & rates + lower growth potential. Ask Latam how import substitution industrialization worked out…

With all the noise, you rarely hear the economic truth of immigration. “The elephant in the room: As the U.S. population ages the need for workers from elsewhere is only going to grow. I haven’t seen any politician talk about this.” projects.propublica.org/new-effects-of…

Wonderful resource from Bloomberg--Not sure how many people are answering polls or betting on websites but millions of people are expressing themselves through individual donations--those texts are working 😂

This is not a drill… Sweeping Raids, Giant Camps and Mass Deportations: Inside Trump’s 2025 Immigration Plans nytimes.com/2023/11/11/us/…

This passage from Michelle Obama: "I hope you'll forgive me if I'm a little frustrated that some of us are choosing to ignore Donald Trump's gross incompetence while asking Kamala to dazzle us at every turn. I hope that you'll forgive me if I'm a little angry that we are

The pivot begins...

The US consumer has really settled into a groove and is leading global growth supported by cooling inflation and a solid job market--hey I have a great idea, let's start a global trade war! 🙄

GDP and labor market data point to another sizzling gain in US productivity in Q3, the secret sauce of noninflationary growth (we are tracking 3.5% q/q, 2.5% y/y) ...the US economy is 🔥

Not going to gaslight here, this picture worries me...not at all. Order has been restored and we are moving in the right direction

A frank and productive exchange of views with my counterpart on key issues like expanding the global supply of candy and toys and tightening sanctions against chores.

The pivot is complete! 🙄

I’ll be over at J Cornelius-econ.bsky.social

Join me here bsky.app/profile/jc-eco…