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"Starvation as Statecraft" "The world, it seems, is witnessing an 'experiment': an attempt to indefinitely maintain Gaza’s population below the famine threshold while turning food into a weapon of war" crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…

🎧 NEW EPISODE | Hold Your Fire! This week, Richard Atwood speaks with Comfort Ero and Jean-Herve jezequel about political shifts and military rule in the Sahel amid rising jihadist violence. crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/m…

The consequences of an unchecked escalation between Israel and Iran will be dire, including for Donald Trump, who campaigned as a dealmaker seeking to end, not start or widen, wars. crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…

Israel's in box - it can't destroy Iran's program; and won't/can't accept an outcome in which it survives; And Trump is in a box too. He's caught between a war he doesn't want to enter and one he can't stop. Right now both are in cul de sac with no easy way out.

You'll have heard many times now that Israel's strikes on Iran are a "huge gamble". But what does this mean? In short: Israel is going it alone and all-in against a powerful enemy. It had some opening successes, but the results are far from certain. Here's why:

Is there path out of this deepening crisis? Perhaps, though not a particularly promising one. Facing perhaps the gravest crisis it's faced since the 8yr war w/ Iraq in the 80s #Iran may end up doubling down to detriment of its people & the region. Ali Vaez time.com/7294202/grim-r…

My latest for Financial Times From Iran-Contra to '03 US invasion of Iraq, and feeding of millions of $ to Hamas, Netanyahu has consistently advocated policy options that make everything worse + He can start wars but doesn't know how to end them. ft.com/content/8d75ba…

European ministers to hold #nuclear talks with #Iran on Friday in Geneva, per Reuters ☢️ Opportunity to share my latest analysis with my colleagues Washington Institute on Key Outside Actors in the #IranIsrael Showdown where I unpack the role #Europe is likely to play👇 Hanin Ghaddar

I don’t want to hear any 🇪🇺 statement that the 🇺🇸 has the right to defend itself. This is a clearcut violation of international law.

Colleagues @crisisgroup foreshadow 🇺🇸strikes on #Iran. One takeaway: if past tells us anything, it’s that what appears impressive at first can turn into disaster over time. We don't know if this will follow suit but avoiding regime change helps avert that. crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…

Hussein Agha's and my take on US/Israel/Iran for Foreign Affairs: The years that lie ahead will be shaped by instinct & emotion, inspired by raw, deeply-rooted yearnings for vengeance. This is not a world built by or for Americans. They will be at sea. foreignaffairs.com/israel/perils-…

Looking forward to this. Thank you, Hurst Publishers

POMEPS Call for Papers: Syria after Assad Workshop. We seek papers on topics related to understanding Syria today that will be discussed at a virtual workshop on Sept. 19th. The deadline to apply is July 21st. For more info on how to apply: pomeps.org/call-for-paper…

A Journey Across the New #Syria Ben Hubbard David Guttenfelder nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Hurst Publishers This book is as well written as it is academically rigorous. Fascinating and based on an enormous amount of on-the-ground research. Absolutely essential reading for those wishing to understand the new Syrian dispensation.

Jerome Drevon Hurst Publishers I'm on page 210. I would have finished were I not very busy in Ukraine. I will refer to it a lot in the book I'm now writing. It's really great - shows real subtlety and nuance and a comprehensive knowledge of both Islamism and Syrian society. It deserves a huge audience.

.maxrodenbeck (@maxji.bsky.social) for Foreign Affairs on the late stages of Israel's war of starvation, displacement and – ultimately, seemingly – expulsion in Gaza: foreignaffairs.com/israel/gaza-wi…

The Israeli government appears to be seeking not only long-term military occupation of Gaza but also the large-scale displacement—or even expulsion—of its civilian population. crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…

Hurst Publishers Jerome Drevon Michael Dwyer The book shows how Ahmad al-Sharaa and HTS moved, or were moved, by the exigencies of power, to the political and religious centre of conservative Sunni Idlibi society - which is not at all the same as the centre of Syrian society...

US contractors say their colleagues are firing live ammo as Palestinians seek food in Gaza. apnews.com/article/palest…