#Powell came thru today @ #JacksonHole2022, ditching the sugarcoating, warning about the “unfortunate costs” of the inflation fight and coming out against premature easing expectations. #recession acceptance is growing. At Desjardins Group, we now forecast a mild one for Canada.

Central bankers are embracing the idea of a recession being a "necessary evil". I was on BNN Bloomberg to discuss this topic, and also why it means Canada will enter recession in 2023. bnnbloomberg.ca/video/the-wors…

Is the Bank of Canada About to Catch a Falling Knife? To prepare for next Wednesday’s Bank of Canada announcement, make sure to read Royce C. Mendes’s thoughts in our Desjardins Group Weekly Commentary. desjardins.com/ressources/pdf…

Sings of crack are appearing in the job market despite high job vacancies. How much buffer openings will provide is still debated. That will depend on the intensity of the slowdown but the rise un Cdn unemployment suggests it’s getting ugly fast here. desjardins.com/ressources/pdf…

No Pain No Gain for the Canadian Economy My colleague @Randall_Bartlet wraps up the recent Cdn data. Let's not get fooled by the upward bumps along a correction journey. Green shoots will surface when the BoC will ease again. We're pretty far from that. desjardins.com/ressources/pdf…

I was on BNN Bloomberg earlier to discuss the Fed's hawkishness and implications across the border. Tomorrow, my Economics team at Desjardins Group will be releasing a new outlook, complete with fresh forecasts for the US, Canada and elsewhere. bnnbloomberg.ca/video/how-the-…

The Intensifying Fight against Inflation Could Orchestrate a Global Recession Our full Economic and Financial Outlook, complete with post-Fed terminal rate and global GDP forecast updates. We now expect the US to enter recession in 2023. Details here: desjardins.com/qc/en/savings-…

Alors qu’une récession mondiale semble se dessiner, arrive-t-on près d’un plafonnement des taux d’intérêt? J’étais à Zone économie pour discuter de nos dernières prévisions. ici.radio-canada.ca/rdi/zone-econo…

Employment rose, the unemployment rate fell, that’s where the good news stopped in the September jobs report. In fact, Canada’s continuing loss of momentum is quite obvious when delving into the data. This will continue…and by design. bnnbloomberg.ca/video/the-cana…

It’s #SmallBusinessWeek in Ontario and in these challenging times, we thought it important to dive deeply into how small businesses are faring, what’s their outlook and how well they are positioned cyclically and structurally. Check out our report! Desjardins Group Ontario Chamber

I was invited on the season opener of the Economics Matters podcast. We exchanged on recession risk and what it would look like, + some do’s and don’ts for economic policy Economics Matters Ep: 01 - Recession Risk with Sohaib Shahid and Jimmy Jean" conferenceboard.ca/insights/podca…

My colleague @Randall_Bartlet with Desjardins Group's market-leading preview ahead of Chrystia Freeland's fiscal update next week. What will be the impact of the recession on Canada's public finances? How will debt be financed? Plus, our independent fiscal outlook. All in the report👇🏿.

Les données récentes du PIB au Québec sont inquiétantes et corroborent des signaux d’essoufflement dans l’emploi, la construction et la fabrication. Perte de momentum spectaculaire qui évoque une possibilité d’une entrée en récession plus hâtive que prévu. lapresse.ca/affaires/econo…

This Fall Economic Statement comes amid a reawakening of bond vigilantes. Ms. Freeland will likely keep them at bay but we do expect deficits to rewiden due to the expected recession, cost indexation and interest costs. See @Randall_Bartlet‘s preview. desjardins.com/content/dam/pd…

Un mois à la fois…En plus du carburant, on voit des signes de modération des prix dans les catégories qui ont fait l’objet d’une demande exubérante en pandémie et dans celles sensibles aux taux d’intérêt. Mon entrevue à Radio-Canada Info

December marked 10 consecutive m/m declines for LEI from ⁦The Conference Board⁩ … going back to 1960, we've never seen that stretch without economy already being in recession

...meanwhile on this chart, we can observe the average blood adrenaline level of every Bay St. trader, PM, economist and strategist around this morning's job number...

#nolandingnopausing?

Credit Access Survey from New York Fed shows more stress building for consumers ... record-high rejection rate for autos reported in June, alongside tick higher for credit card rejections (survey only goes back about a decade)

US job and wage growth have slowed down considerably—likely signaling an end to the exceptionally strong labor markets of the last two years. Perhaps most worrying, firms' hiring expectations for the next year remain weak🧵 apricitas.io/p/americas-wea…