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Is rising Fed. govt debt relative to the economy making the govt vulnerable to bankruptcy? Probably not since private sector debt to GDP has declined significantly since 2007 and it finances the government. If the private sector is okay so is the US! PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com

The Risk-Return Frontier shifts substantially based on the US economic policy regime. So far investors have been stuck on the red RRF (average returns) but I think an easing in monetary policy will soon shift investors to the green RRF. See my report @ PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com

I have the great pleasure of joining Charles V Payne on his Making Money FOX Business TV show today at approximately 2 pm EST. Always fun joining Charles! I hope you will tune in for a lively conversation about the economy, the Fed, and the financial markets. PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com

In my latest piece, six economic and market relationships are discussed. One is shown below. For the first time since 2021, small caps are getting some support. The SC support indicator (red) finally turned up in January. Go Smalls! See full report @ PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com

Gold has been riding a wave of persistent pessimism. When most get too optimistic, it's often time to sell stocks, but when most are chronically pessimistic, as consumer sentiment suggests today, it's probably time to sell gold! See my latest report @ PaulsenPersepctives.Substack.com

After trending in the same range from 1870 to 1990, the average US PE multiple (red line) has drifted 40% higher since 1990 from 14 to 19.5. That means the current PE of 23.5 is only 16.7 (23.5/1.4) if adjusted for PE drift since 1990. Reasonable. PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com

A Video Update on Insights Surrounding the Pending Risk-Return Frontier Shift open.substack.com/pub/paulsenper… My latest video research piece on a couple favorable forces for stocks returns going forward. Please subscribe to listen to the whole post. PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com

Please watch my latest video post. Paulsenperspective.Substack.com

Most Americans believe a strong U.S. #Dollar is sacrosanct. However, as the charts below demonstrate, investors interested in strong returns should cheer for a weak dollar. See my latest post "Hooray for a Weak Dollar" at PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com #stocks #bonds #Investing

Here are 2 charts showing the Fed will likely ease sooner than expected. The financial markets positive correlation say they are not worried about inflation and US economic momentum has clearly slowed since year end. See latest report at PaulsenPerspectives.substack.com #FederalReserve

Monetary policy has been contractionary in this bull market. If it is finally eased, a plethora of supports for the stock market could be unleashed - lower interest rates, bond yields, and US dollar, and quicker money growth and improved confidence. See PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com

For the first time in the post-war era, since 2022, the US has enjoyed sustained real GDP growth without private sector debt usage. This is why real GDP growth is relatively slow but is also why falling into a recession is much less likely. PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com #growth #debt

Investors are scared & loaded. The cash/confidence ratio is currently higher than 97% of the time since 1952 allowing investors to buy stocks today with a similar character to past bear market lows. Get my free report at PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com