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To show which materials are most likely to be impacted by a East/Gulf Coast port strike, we sent this chart to our clients over a week ago. Most disrupted products: - bricks [clay] - furniture - kitchen cabinets - aluminum - lighting equipment - hardware

Supply shortages again?

We now have more complete unsold new homes per community than at any time in the last 10 years (per survey Jody Kahn started for us during the GFC). Community by community, builders are deciding - drop prices or wait until Spring. ⁦⁦Gina Heeb⁩ wsj.com/economy/housin…

War has caused a 2+ year spike in global migration, at the same time national borders reopened post-pandemic. For example, Ukraine and Russia nationals have accounted for almost 400K encounters with US border agents since Feb. 2022.

"The biggest issue for housing across homebuilding and for sale on the resale side over the last year or two has just been affordability," John Burns Research & Consulting's Rick Palacios Jr. says. "The entire space would prefer to see a 6% mortgage rate, not a 7% mortgage rate."

A big year for home building M&A ⁦Diana Olick⁩ cnbc.com/2024/11/13/hom…

Single-family build-to-rent (BTR) starts will likely hit ~100K in 2024 per Census, more than two times the norm. I think about this chart a lot, mainly because if it weren’t for this BTR surge, total single-family starts (including for sale) would be down overall in 2024.

We send clients hundreds of housing research reports annually, scrutinizing our subject lines to capture sentiment and tone shifts. Below is a subject line for each month of this year, illustrating the ebb and flow of homebuilding in 2024. It’s clear homebuilders started 2024

(3/11) The 6 phases of the housing cycle: (4-6) 🔹 Bottoming – Market reaches a low, stabilizes. 🔹 Recovering – Demand and prices begin to rise. 🔹 Growing/Maturing – Market is strong, prices up.

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Pricing power for homebuilders through March clearly moving the wrong way based on our findings. Any added costs now due to new tariffs gonna be tough to push through in this backdrop. Buyers are in no hurry and expect price cuts, not increases.

It is a horrible time to be in a business that relies on people moving - rental trucks, real estate agents, remodelers, furniture, mortgage, title, utilities, etc. Renters and homeowners are staying in place more than ever before.

Wow! I would love to see the breakdown by gender of voter.

The big picture Even with a looming slowdown, the firms that secure capital, scale operations, and lock in land today (institutionalization of land investing) will be best positioned to win when housing demand inevitably rebounds. Our 2025 Housing Summit, held May 20–21 in

10 key takeaways from the conference (1/10) Spring sales slump likely stretching into summer: builders are trimming starts, renegotiating land deals, and leaning on rate-buydowns as entry-level traffic weakens and resale competition rises. FHA non-permanent resident restrictions

For the first time in over a decade, we're seeing home prices decline through May. Not normal for this time of year. 🧐

This quote from one of our team members who just completed a market study in Jacksonville was too good not to share. “The incentives are so outrageous that the sales are misleading. They’re just giving it away.“