Softer US Economic Growth Expected For Q3 GDP Report: capitalspectator.com/softer-us-econ…

Relatively Loose Macro Conditions Remain A Tailwind For Stocks: tmcresearch.com/p/relatively-l…

US jobless claims are still low by historical standards, but the ongoing rise in the 4-week avg suggests the labor market is cooling. Let's see how tomorrow's payrolls report for Aug compares--economists are expecting another tepid month of hiring.

ADP's employment report for August looks worrisome: "The year started with strong job growth, but that momentum has been whipsawed by uncertainty," ADP's chief economist: adpemploymentreport.com

The US services economy's growth picked up to a modest pace in Aug via the ISM Services Index. But the upbeat news is tempered by the weakness in services employment, which continued to contract for a third straight month via this survey-based indicator: ismworld.org/supply-managem…

The US 10yr Treasury yield broke below recent lows, trading under 4.18%. The market doesn't appear worried about tariff-related inflation. Why? Maybe because several labor market updates suggest economic-slowdown risk is a higher priority.

Macro Briefing: 5 September 2025: capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing…

Is The Stock Market Overbought? capitalspectator.com/is-the-stock-m…

US nonfarm payrolls rose a tepid 22,000 in August, close to the slowest pace since the recovery from the pandemic. The news further strengthens expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at the Sep. 17 FOMC meeting:

Jeff Snider asks what is perhaps the most important question re: today's weaker-than-expected payrolls report for Aug. I wish I was kidding.

Pricing in rate cuts and softer economic conditions, US 10yr yield edition:

Today's weak payrolls report for Aug points to a Fed rate cut and softer growth, and yet gold (GLD) is trading up at a new record high. Hmmm...

Book Bits: 6 September 2025: capitalspectator.com/book-bits-6-se…

Another weak payrolls report for Aug raises concerns re: the economic outlook, but it's not showing up in the Dallas Fed's Weekly Economic Index thru Aug 30, which aligns with a ~2.5% yoy increase in GDP--a bit above the actual 2.1% yoy increase in Q2 GDP: dallasfed.org/research/wei

Gold (GLD) is surging this year. Gold mining stock (GDX) are doing much -- a lot -- better:

If tariffs are intended to materially reduce, if not eliminate, the US trade deficit, the odds don't look encouraging, based on the historical record since 1989 for 188 countries, via the Dallas Fed: dallasfed.org/research/econo…

The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 07 SEP 2025: etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf-port…

Macro Briefing: 8 September 2025: capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing…

Major Asset Classes Posting Across-The-Board Gain In 2025: capitalspectator.com/major-asset-cl…

The bond market, Fed funds futures, and a model I run for The Milwaukee Company point to a high-confidence estimate for a Fed rate cut next week: tmcresearch.com/p/slowing-labo…