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Now we know why the #PolarVortex (PV) has been doing all that stretching this season (a baker's dozen) because the PV is saving the best for last with a double somersault, followed by a back flip & ending in a full split. I have seen this movie before & can disappoint in the end.

Guess where I am?

Ol' Man #Winter is leaving us with a bang & not a whimper weather with the American models predicting the most exciting #PolarVortex split & the European predicting the more mundane displacement. What could be the impacts to our weather? Blog now posted: published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.…

Could the #PolarVortex pull off the highly improbable identical triplets feat splitting & then splitting again? I don't know but at least it makes for entertaining animations for #snow lovers left unsatisfied with another season with lots of fantasy storms & little to show for it

After a #winter at a frenetic pace of changes, the #PolarVortex is settling into a large & long duration disruption. There will be a smaller, immediate impact but what & when could be the greater & longer lasting impact to our weather. Blog is now public: published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.…

Looks like the "dripping" from large #polarvortex disruption will begin last week of March and continue for multiple weeks afterwards. First drip is predicted to have low impact but we need the caboose to get from upper stratosphere to surface for big impacts, probably in July.😂

This will unlikely to a very memorable #PolarVortex (PV) disruption but it's looking like the sudden stratospheric warming is the most prolific in spitting/splitting off baby vortices. Now we know why the PV did all those stretches this #winter-to be ready for all these baby PVs!

Large #PolarVortex (PV) is entertaining with multiple passes from different PV centers over the Northeastern US maybe unprecedented? But what will be the weather impacts? I also present verification of the AER #winter temperature forecast. Blog now public: published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.…

The very large #PolarVortex disruption continues unabated with multiple PV centers circumnavigating the globe in record time. I discuss why with such an impressive PV disruption the weather impact is underwhelming & could that change? Blog is now public: published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.…

I haven't shared our estimate of the Northern Hemisphere snowfall anomalies all winter but here it is for winter 2024/25. Big winners - Japan, coastal Alaska, Great Lakes, Eastern Canada and in general higher latitudes and altitudes. Notable mention, parts of the Southeastern US.

As uneventful the #PolarVortex (PV) split has been so far, it is rare (or even unprecedented) to be able to say one daughter PV center is over merry ol' England and the other daughter PV center is over New England!

The large #PolarVortex disruption now a month in duration is still influencing our weather with tentacles descending from the stratosphere & touching our weather. Latest tentacle bringing winter in spring but when is the next &/or last one. Blog now public published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.…

Most have probably moved on from the #polarvortex (PV) thinking of beach days & summer vacations but not me. The PV is still lurking out there & it looks to make another pass at the Northeastern US in early May, what weather could it bring? Blog now public published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.…

Well it is called the #PolarVortex (PV) blog so I am hanging in there until the PV takes it last breadth, which is imminent. But I discuss the PV's parting shot on our weather, aka Greenland blocking as it heads for the exit until the fall. Blog now public published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.…

Excited about our new review paper (Ye et al., 2025) on the relationship between snow/ice variability & weather extremes. I will highlight analysis that shows a strong relationship between fall Siberian #snow cover & cold extremes in eastern North America: nature.com/articles/s4161…

The large #PolarVortex disruption from the 2nd week of March is coming to its climatic end the 4th week of May with the largest polar cap heights finally making its way to the mid-troposphere, Greenland blocking & relatively cool temperatures in Europe, the eastern US & East Asia

the #PolarVortex (PV) might be gone but not forgotten. The PV left a party favor some will view as a treat & others as a trick. Memorial Day is the unofficial start of the summer but promises to be chilly in the Eastern US & Europe thanks to the arrival of high-latitude blocking.

They say timing is everything. Well the #PolarVortex disruption of March with its impacts reaching a crescendo in late May is timed to equally frustrate winter lovers and those eager for an early start to summer, bringing March in May. Blog is now public: published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.…