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Whether this happens or not - getting a sitting US president to acknowledge and potentially sanction an attack on oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf would torpedo a core tenet of US foreign policy over the past 50 years: don't mess with Gulf oil supply (*except via sanctions)

Geopolitical risks have been running high, yet oil prices are largely unfazed. The "risk premium" isn't what it used to be. Some call it complacency, but what if there's more to it? I joined Energy Cents to discuss the future of the risk premium. open.spotify.com/episode/1T6eOl…

Shale E&Ps : "We are taking our foot off the accelerator as we approach a red light" Market (soon) :"That's not a red light, it's a freight train headed your way. We're going to need you to go ahead and put it in reverse"

Why aren't #oil prices reacting to surging risk? Last fall, I spoke to Energy Cents about the fading crude risk premium and specifically about the increasing unwillingness of markets to pre-emptively price geopolitical risks - no matter how great the risk. (🧵)

🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 In the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I spoke with Karim Fawaz of S&P Global Commodity Insights about oil's evolving "risk premium" and why, after years of acute geopolitical tumult, political risk just isn't the oil price impulse it used to be. LISTEN: open.spotify.com/episode/5APvyW…