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Summary of "Improving modelling for epidemic responses: reflections from members of the UK infectious disease modelling community on their experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic" Full article: doi.org/10.1101/2023.0… epinowcast.org/posts/2023-06-…

🎉Congratulations to the winners of our new epidemic preparedness prizes🎉 🤝Collaboration: Abdoulie Kanteh 🎓Research Degree Student: Rachael Pung 📚Resource: Kath Sherratt, @grusonh, Sebastian Funk (@[email protected]) Hear about their research at our upcoming showcase event👉bit.ly/44eqAKo

It's disturbing how this level of excess mortality has been normalised - 1000 more people dying each week has just become background noise in the midst of the chaos we live in. As the media report on 'migrant' boats and 'threats' that don't exist.. it's dystopian.

This week, UK Covid-19 Inquiry hears evidence on SPI-M. We know that the experiences of UK modellers varied dramatically. We added our summary to 'Every Story Matters'. Add yours: everystorymatters.co.uk Our summary: epinowcast.org/posts/2023-06-… w/Anna Carnegie Yang 刘扬 Sam Abbott (@[email protected])

Thomas House 热爱科学 Dr. Joel C. Miller I quite like this one, which you could easily adapt to your context. But Graham Medley is right in saying that it's difficult to frame uncertainty without a specified audience/decision context.

Wow, next week is going to be some week at the UK Covid-19 Inquiry.

This makes me weep. It is a consistent message from modellers that I have spoken to. They believed this work was being done in other rooms. This is a BIG failing that rests with the Chief Scientific Adviser and the Cabinet

Excited to see this work finally in print. Big thanks to James Azam, PhD for his leadership on this systematic review of modeling outbreak response to vaccine preventable diseases. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

Many thanks to Professor Chris Whitty for paying tribute to the people who created the UK Coronavirus Dashboard.

Now out in PLOS Computational Biology: Why are different estimates of the reproductive number so different? journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/a… Short answer: there are a lot of analytical decisions to make, and for each of them different analysts will make different choices.

NEW EPISODE of #ScienceInContext! This week Sabine L.van Elsland speaks with Anna Carnegie & Kath Sherratt reflecting on experiences from members of the UK infectious disease modelling community during the #COVID19 pandemic 👇

New preprint with the alternative title "What I wish I had known about delay distribution estimation in January 2020" samabbott.co.uk/posts/2024-01-…

What does it mean to "learn how to think"? I stumbled upon this old column of mine, which I had quite forgotten, and found myself pleasantly surprised by the ideas in it. Being a writer is like that sometimes - on good days, anyway. timharford.com/2022/07/learni…

Following on from our last work Kelly Charniga has led a piece looking at best practices for estimating and reporting epidemiological delay distributions. hal.science/hal-04572940v1

It was great to deliver a new course on Nowcasting and Forecasting of Infectious Disease Dynamics (team effort with Kath Sherratt and Sam Abbott (@[email protected])) at ESPIDAM in Stockholm this week su.se/department-of-…. Hopefully again next year! All materials available at nfidd.github.io/nfidd/

🔓New #PhD thesis now live in Research Online! Collaborative outbreak modelling for decision support: evaluating trade-offs from multi-model combination – by Katharine Sherratt 🔗doi.org/10.17037/PUBS.… #OpenAccess #Thesis