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For the next three years, an optimistic tariff-advocate scenario looks a lot like that 2001-style recession. That’s an important point: the transition advocates mostly want to gloss over may in fact be a recession, which research suggests would have long-term consequences.

Has never worked for me but ymmv

Coming soon

I assume the appeal, relative to other PEDs, is the cleanly identified causal effect on performance

Census, of course, is hyper aware of the costs of unnecessary respondent burden and constantly works to avoid it. It often runs surveys to collect information other agencies need. Even a well-intentioned effort would have limited scope for gains here. This is just cheap mockery.

Former OMB chief economist

There’s some evidence that moving marginal students above the bar to graduate from high school (without teaching them more) helps them in some ways. I don’t think putting the bar on the floor will help anyone.

The Heart of the Deal briefingbook.info/p/the-heart-of…

I feel like people have the sense that any “deals” that emerge from the constantly shifting tariff situation are unlikely to be economically awesome, but this piece does a great job explaining why that is, and it’s not even really about Trump briefingbook.info/p/the-heart-of…

"When workers choose jobs with predictable schedules, safer conditions, or greater autonomy, they are often paying a price: lower wages." Alex Bell on a new approach to measuring job amenities, and how amenity trade-offs relate to the gender pay gap: equitablegrowth.org/the-hidden-tra…

The Yale Law School of Conflating Net and Gross Measures of Things

The real issues facing the Social Security program aren’t inefficiency or fraud briefingbook.info/p/the-real-iss…

The Proliferation of Private Digital Money briefingbook.info/p/the-prolifer…

Even before Senate made them worse, OBBBA's Medicaid & SNAP cuts projected to be economic equivalent of losing: 97% of food manufacturing in NJ's 7th district (Kean) 85% of farming in NE-2 (Bacon) 69% of hospitality (largest private industry in district!) in CO-3 (Hurd) ...

For the few years I've been covering jobs reports, and one sector typically rises above the rest, quietly hiring by the thousands: Health care. How taking care of humans became the biggest employer in America, and what it means for the rest of us. nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Very clear article by Lydia DePillis The New York Times discussing our Becker Friedman Institute for Economics / NBER working paper and other aspects of healthcare job growth. For more detail, the full paper together w/ Neale Mahoney Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Kevin Rinz Victoria Udalova is here: gottlieb.ca/papers/HealthC…

It’s early, of course, but I think we may already see tariffs in the jobs data. Employment is falling in industries that are more exposed to tariff-driven increases in input costs, but not in less-exposed industries.

Take that, Al Qaeda 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

You know, at the time, I thought being asked to fact-check tweets was kind of funny, but here we are