THE HARDEST RISK to manage in credit investing is assets/companies becoming obsolete. You can't fix the B/S of an obsolete asset Happens gradually then suddenly .. Today many office buildings and in the future perhaps some SAAS companies

Good report from junkbondinvestor on Chegg's risk of becoming OBSOLETE due to AI OBSOLESCENCE is the HARDEST RISK to hedge for CREDIT INVESTORS. While Chegg is technically not SaaS .. it is definitely a subscription so pretty close. junkbondinvestor.com/p/cheggs-600-m…

Tough day for just about every investor but at least Private Credit marks are UNCHED!

Credit bears have had their eyes on $PSEC for a couple of years. if BDCs were a high school class, $PSEC might be voted most likely to not succeed. Gradually then suddenly? Regardless of your take on $PSEC, very good article by Bloomberg. bloomberg.com/news/features/…

IMHO, if you aren't listening to Patrick OShaughnessy podcast, you aren't fully trying to get better at whatever game you are playing. He routinely drops nuggets of insight/wisdom like this one which makes you realize that you need to keep learning.

EXTEND and PRETEND is the biggest worry in Private Credit. How do PC/BDC funds extend and pretend? PIKs BDC analyst estimates that 17% and growing of public BDC's assets are PIKs. Problem for BDC is that PIKs count as income which needs to paid out as a div so leverage ^

"irrelevant immaterial non-burger"

This dude is giving off some Dick Fuld vibe bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Judd was on this one early ... if you are an oil bull, worth taking a listen. Jared Dillian Tony Greer

if this graph is true, bearish for credit

Hearing url changed so traffic still strong

Good time to launch the secondary trading of private credit.

On tough days, I think about this yarn: At a party, Kurt Vonnegut informs his pal, Joseph Heller, that their host, a HF manager, had made more $$ in 1 day than Heller had earned from Catch-22 in total. Heller replies, “Yes, but I have something he will never have — ENOUGH.”

If you employ margin or in a carry trade (including long credit), you are short vol. The longer this high vol persists, the greater chance of forced selling.

I agree and Andy's knowledge of UST auctions is elite

HIGHER correlation means HIGHER volatility .. simple but powerful

In the last 46 days, I saw my 2 hoops teams (Duke and Knicks) lose when one had a 97.1% and other 99.7% win probability but at least private credit marks are still PAR!

20 betas working out of a strip mall in King of Prussia rated 3,000 private credit deals .. sounds like a solid foundation for the underpinnings of the US capital markets. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

I love NY but might have to move to Wisconsin just to vote for Bill Berrien. I have never met anyone with a higher ratio of (character+accomplishments) / ego. Just being around Bill inspires me to be a better person and citizen.