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How does human psychology impact #ForeignPolicy decisions? Mark Schafer and Joshua Lambert discuss the importance of psychology in decision making, its absence from FP, and introduce their new dataset in their 2022 article "PsyCL: A New Data Set" academic.oup.com/fpa/article-ab…

New Pre-print out today! We're releasing Political DEBATE -- a new set of language models for zero/few-shot classification of political text. The models are open source, small enough to run on your laptop, and as good as proprietary LLMs within domain. arxiv.org/pdf/2409.02078

We worry a lot about the credibility of threats. We should worry more about the credibility of coercive assurance. Targets of coercion defy credible threats when they think they are ‘damned if they do and damned if they don’t’. doi.org/10.1162/isec_a…

Excited that my new book with Danny Hill, "Positioning Women in Conflict Studies: How Women's Status Affects Political Violence, is out with Oxford University Press news.cornell.edu/stories/2024/0… If you assign chapters, Danny and I are happy to do guest lectures!

If you are taking (or teaching!) a course on statistical inference/regression, I have a draft textbook available for free mattblackwell.github.io/gov2002-book/ Recently updated to introduce design- and modeled-based inference. Emphasis on intuition and rigor.

The hidden structure behind selecting research paradigms revealed The sequence is simple: Axiology → Ontology → Epistemology → Methodology → Methods → Sources This framework changes how you approach creating knowledge.

Running a survey? Wondering if you should include a “don’t know” response option in your policy preference questions? In our new PSRM Journal paper, Christopher Wlezien and me examine the consequences of the DK option for (various) estimates of public opinion cambridge.org/core/journals/… 1/n

Happy to see this in print. This covers opinion mining with supervised classifiers, NLI classifiers, and LLMs. Consider adding it to your syllabus if you’re teaching text as data!

Need a power/sample size calculation for a study or upcoming grant? Led by Emil Hodzic-Santor, we built a simple, free, and pain-free (!) shiny app. feedback welcome plz share with interested parties. check it out: powercalc.ca 🦾🤓 Michelle Sholzberg Kieran Campbell Lianne Jeffs

I’m very happy to announce my next book: ‘THE NEW NUCLEAR AGE’ (Polity). The book surveys the many growing sources of nuclear anxiety around the world and identifies pathways to managing these risks. Pre-order here: amazon.com/New-Nuclear-Ag… Carnegie Nuclear Policy Carnegie Endowment

Stay tuned! Out next week in the Fall issue of International Security

Now in American Political Science Review: What do politicians think about their voters? Fielding face-to-face surveys to 982 sitting politicians in 11 countries, and surveys of 12,000 citizens, we find they have remarkably consistent - and cynical - theories of voters: /1 doi.org/10.1017/S00030…

New article: "Elite Perceptions of a China-led Regional Order in Southeast Asia" (link below). Terence Lee and I ran a survey that showed that while regional elites view China as > influential and culturally closer than the US, they do not find its political values desirable.

It’s here!!! My essay with Stacie Goddard on pathways of nuclear nonuse International Organization

Thrilled to share my new paper, “Calibrating Autonomy,” co-authored with Francis Fukuyama, now in print at Governance Journal. This research journey started when I read his seminal piece "What is Governance?" as a grad student. I loved this graph—and immediately envisioned testing his

New article w/Natán Skigin: “Silencing the Press in Criminal Wars: Why the War on Drugs Turned Mexico into the World’s Most Dangerous Country for Journalists”. The militarization of anti-crime policies unleashes multiple conflicts that endanger local press. doi.org/10.1017/S15375…

These days a whole raft of people seem more interested in expressing and magnifying public outrage than in helping us understand what we should do in this moment. I much prefer the sort of discussion provided by Przeworski in this article. Open access: journalofdemocracy.org/articles/who-d…

I am elated to say that my book, "Words of War: Negotiation as a Tool of Conflict," is now published and available to order! In the book, I argue and demonstrate that negotiations are not only used to end wars but can also be wielded to fight them. A summary thread is below.

Delighted to have a new article out with Isaac B. Kardon in International Security. Short thread: 1) China is emerging as a global security provider, including to countries that seek/get security assistance from the US.

We streamlined six new DID-like estimators and created this tutorial for implementation in R. yiqingxu.org/packages/fect/… Hope you no longer need to spend months figuring out what these estimators are and how to use them. w/ Ziyi Liu