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Sabato's Crystal Ball Seante and House ratings changes Iowa Senate: Safe Republican to Likely Republican #KY06: Safe Republican to Likely Republican #ME02: Lean Democratic to Toss-up #MN02: Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ra…

Ds held SC's 50th state House district in a special elex last night, 71%-29%. District was 51%-46% Harris, so another D special overperformance. Rs didn't run a candidate in 2024. Ds won 60%-40% in 2022 w/ 13k votes cast. 3.7k votes cast last night, so low turnout

A Chilling Prediction by Leo Strauss persuasion.community/p/a-chilling-p…

Caraveo’s vulnerabilities make other Democrats more likely to run against her. But the more Democrats who run against her, the more likely she wins the primary due to a fractured field and her initial advantages!

White voters shifted toward Trump nationwide, though less sharply than minority voters. Gains were strongest in the Northeast and Florida. Harris held steady in some key battlegrounds and in much of the West.

First 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary Debate Moderator: If you're an Abundance Candidate, please raise your hand

“NBC newscaster Tim Russert, then a student at the Cleveland–Marshall College of Law, recalled attending the game, and later commented, ‘I went with $2 in my pocket. You do the math’”

The new Almanac Politics of American Politics is still in the production stage, but here's an excerpt of seven Chicago-area district chapters I updated during a day-long tour before the DNC, kindly republished by Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball Center for Politics at UVA. centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ex…

It says a lot about the Biden White House -- and none of it good -- that this many people thought KJP was bad at her job, and yet that didn't stop her from keeping it.

pretty delusional but par for the course in re: Musk's public commentary on basically anything to do with politics or policy

The Second Coming of Crist

On Saturday at UVA Reunions 2025, Larry Sabato surprised the audience with a special message from Katie Couric announcing their joint commitment to a $50,000 match for the new Joshua Scott (COL '00) Memorial Lecture Fund, created in memory of our original Program Director. (1/3)

We're so proud to be able to honor Josh's incredible life and legacy on Grounds and beyond with an event just like what he would plan for us -- inspiring UVA students and the greater community to get civically engaged with leading voices in American politics. (2/3)

Please consider joining us in our effort with a gift today, and get your gift matched! givecampus.com/schools/Univer…

Some 7000 vessels involved in the D Day landings now crowd the English Channel. Pilots look down in awe as they glimpse a vast armada through gaps in clouds.

a frontrunner with a history of scandal loathed by the media and attacked by all his rivals getting endorsements from candidates who once attacked him in vicious ways - nothing like this has ever happened x.com/JacobRubashkin…

to the extent there's any impact on views of Trump from yesterday's Trump v. Musk tweetoff (and there very well may not be any), I'd think Trump would be likelier to be helped than hurt b/c Musk had already become a political liability for him

NEW: Republicans are worried Musk's DOGE will sink them in this year's VA gov race A GOP internal poll found that nearly half the state's voters knew someone impacted by the cuts axios.com/2025/06/07/elo…

Tired of litigating this, but this is pure fiction. Biden won because the Dem nomination runs through black southern voters (as did HRC), not because of some long arm. Want to win Dem nomination? Win black southern voters (who are way more moderate than Twitter)