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😍 the use of baselines when reporting numbers

Over 10 years in and I still read "causal" as "casual"

Super cool thread on racial depolarization (what I'd call it, rather than realignment) in US politics. A bit of additional context from diving into similar data:

Realizing that the additional skepticism that used to be necessary on the April Fools' Day internet is now just... normal. The internet in 2024: All fools, all the time

Until it becomes so ubiquitous that we all just write like ChatGPT

The Eurovision/UK parliament crossover content🧵I didn't know I needed:

Wie verbessert man den Onlinediskurs? Heute um 16:15 bei der re:publica #rp24 : unser Panel zu Stop Hate Speech, mit HateAid und Public Discourse Foundation. Schon vorbei: wie wir zusammen mit Blick  Email Feedback eingesetzt haben, um Hasskommentare zu verringern.

Working with any kind of user-generated data

Thanks, Google

Our polling average topline takeaway: Trump is leading in 5 of the 7 battleground states that are most likely to determine the outcome of the election, but PA, WI and MI are within a typically-sized polling error. w/ Diane Napolitano, Kati Perry & Luis Melgar washingtonpost.com/elections/inte…

Welcome #ICML2024 to Vienna! If you work on causality/CSS and want to chat, hit me up. I'm also happy to share recommendations based on a few years living here.

Nach den Landtagswahlen in Sachsen und Thüringen wird die Regierungsbildung extrem kompliziert. Eine Zusammenarbeit von CDU und BSW lässt sich wahrscheinlich nicht vermeiden. Das zeigt unsere Simulation, für die wir je 1.000 mögliche Wahlausgänge durchgerechnet haben.

The election is uncertain, but it might not be close washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/…

This election is uncertain not just because the polls are close, but also because a decisive victory for either candidate is within a normal-sized polling error - and since the polls seem to be herding, a polling error may be likelier than usual. Great piece by Lenny Bronner:

Interested in how people talk to each other online? Care about causal inference and/or NLP? Want to design and implement field experiments? Come do a PhD with Dominik Hangartner, me and a bunch of awesome people at IPL in Zurich: jobs.ethz.ch/job/view/JOPG_…