Congratulations Stefanie Stantcheva !!!

Obviously technical, but this equation (1) on the push-and-pull of relevant variables determining whether tariffs cause a recession in the short-term is a really helpful and straightforward way to approach it:

New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP20165 The Macroeconomics of Tariff Shocks Adrien Auclert Stanford Economics, Matthew Rognlie Northwestern Economics Minneapolis Fed, Ludwig Straub Harvard Department of Economics ow.ly/Jo0G50VIO5N #CEPR_IMF #CEPR_MEF #EconTwitter

Headlines are showing U.S. GDP falling last quarter (ending 3/31), accounted by surge in imports, less than offset by rise in inventories. As others have said, this is clear evidence of pulling forward ahead of expected tariffs in April. Would macro models have predicted this?

Great thread aligning a macro model with the latest GDP data! Times like this make you appreciate that data isn’t necessarily more useful than models even tho models are often derided as being wrong or useless. It’s also useful to remember that data is always model-dependent!

🚨Workshop Alert🚨 Disaggregating National Accounts (DNA): From Macro to Micro The workshop will convene academics and practitioners using microdata across the globe to discuss the frontier of disaggregating national accounts Let us know if you would like to join us Duke Economics

Tariff shocks can lead to short-run recessions, as consumers both at home and abroad postpone purchases. These recessions outweigh the traditional welfare effects of tariffs, from Adrien Auclert, Matthew Rognlie, and Ludwig Straub nber.org/papers/w33726

What should the Fed do with Trump Tariffs? New paper on 'Monetary Policy in Times of Tariffs' with Guido Lorenzoni & Veronica Guerrieri (link at end) We show the simplest most intuitive way to approach tariffs is actually correct: Tariffs = textbook cost-push shock 🧵1/N

Open call for papers, Disaggregated National Accounts: Measurement and Application. Conference to be held virtually on December 11, 2025. Submit papers by 11:59pm EDT on August 27, 2025. More information: nber.org/calls-papers-a…

🚨If you are a macroeconomist using the “sequence-space” to solve your models, come share your work at this SITE conference, September 8-10! Both substantive and methodological contributions are welcome. The deadline is this Monday, June 16! with Ludwig Straub and Matt Rognlie

Come join us at our SITE conference!! More info below 👇🏻

Research by Asger Andersen, Kilian Huber (Chicago Booth), Niels Johannesen, Ludwig Straub, & Emil Toft Vestergaard advances economic tracking, enhancing aggregate measures with disaggregated accounts, offering deeper insights into economic shocks. ow.ly/Gt5a50VPqF3