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Looking for clues in today’s Russian papers to how Moscow might react to Ukraine striking Russia with ATACMS missiles. In one paper: “Starting World War III over strikes on an arms depot in Bryansk region would probably be short-sighted.” #ReadingRussia

#hyperhype time! Please welcome - Oreshnik (Hazel). 1. Intermediate-range ground-based hypersonic missile has been announced back in 2019 in response to the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty. Well, it turns out, now it became ready for a "test launch under battle conditions".

Putin has staged another performance concerning the "missile": kremlin.ru/events/preside…. He bragged about the specs and promised to start serial production. A master bullshi**er, he delights in intimidation. You can tell from his demeanor here that he thinks his tactic has worked.

📢 My latest Substack post went live this morning, providing a reassassment of Germany's Arrow 3 procurement in light of recent missile events. In short, I remain deeply skeptical about the utility of Arrow 3. You can access the post via the link in my bio.

Interview of the commander of the SMFs - Karakaev, some take aways below. This interview is tied to the 65 year anniversary of the service. 1/9

„Der deutschen nuklearen Rüstungskontrollpolitik fehlt ein klarer Plan“, schreibt Jonas Schneider SWP International Security (inactive) in einer neuen SWP-Studie - und analysiert, welche Neukonzeptionen denkbar sind. swp-berlin.org/publikation/de…

The ceilings of the New START are observed, but various options for the development of RU and US arsenals are taken into account. (I'd add that ‘yarsization’ will raise difficult questions). 17/

Do a PhD and free yourself of such concerns

This article is part of the The Nonproliferation Review (NPR) Special Issue examining the consequences of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine for nuclear debates and policy-making - make sure to check excellent analyses on Russia, Ukraine, Germany, Pakistan, Japan and ROK tandfonline.com/toc/rnpr20/30/…

Must read

🚨 The Arms Control Poseur is back 🚨 How did Russia’s nuclear arsenal evolve from the Soviet era to today? Host Alex Bollfrass is joined by Andrey Baklitskiy and Lydia Wachs to discuss Cold War arms races, arms control treaties and today’s nuclear risks. 🎧 Listen now:

The war in Ukraine limited the impact of arms control treaties – but what is the future of US-Russia arms control? 🎧 Tune in and join Alex Bollfrass, Andrey Baklitskiy and Lydia Wachs as they analyse Russia’s historical and current nuclear arsenal:: go.iiss.org/3EYCW1C

🎙️NEW PODCAST: In this episode of The Arms Control Poseur from IISS News, Dr. Alex Bollfrass, Lydia Wachs & Andrey Baklitskiy discuss how Russia’s nuclear arsenal has evolved from the Soviet era & what #Armscontrol means for global security today. 🎧Listen :  tinyurl.com/59bkpxsf

This is from 2023, but I'd say it's still relevant regarding #France's #nuclear weapons and Europe

🇫🇷officials implied deploying fighter jets to send a message to 🇷🇺, while diplomats in 🇩🇪 thought it would pressure 🇬🇧 to follow suit, cites National Interest t.ly/hI-Jr See #STAND's paper on 🇫🇷 capabilities by Liviu Horovitz & Lydia Wachs t.ly/-x2iv 8/10