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Just heard that Jane Garvey and fi glover are going to be talking about how polling might influence voters with Joe Twyman on Times Radio later. May be worth them reading this short post on *exactly* that subject by Queen Mary Politics and IR colleague Matthew Barnfield? theconversation.com/could-labours-…

And you can read about the evidence on all this by checking out the recent The Conversation piece on whether or not polls influence voters by our Queen Mary Politics and IR colleague Matthew Barnfield theconversation.com/could-labours-…

Expecting a Labour majority following the election? Wondering what a Labour government will want to do? I have a book for that! Getting Over New Labour covers Labour’s tumultuous post-2010 years, culminating in Keir Starmer’s leadership. amazon.co.uk/Getting-Over-N…

Probabilistic forecasts may, indeed, prove superior to other methods. At the moment we simply do not have enough information to know one way or the other. Given that, media and the general public should take a deep breath and step away from obsessive, horse-race coverage of small

My article "Policy Discounting Across and Beyond the Lifespan" was published open access over the weekend EJPR journal. It shows that people prefer policies with short-term payoffs, but not because they will personally live to see those future benefits. ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…

I’m very excited to see our paper „Rallying around the leader in times of crises: The opposing effects of perceived threat and anxiety“ (with Roni Lehrer , Oke Bahnsen, @mneunho, Thomas Gschwend and Sebastian Juhl) now published in EJPR journal! ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.11…

💭 Do people show a particular preference for policies that pay off within, rather than beyond, their own lifetime? 📊 Using a conjoint experiment in 🇬🇧, Matthew Barnfield investigates policy discounting across & beyond the lifespan 🔓 #OA bit.ly/4e4y0oo

Do citizens use interest groups aligned with their political views as shortcuts to assess if their views are well represented, similar to political parties? In our new EJPR journal paper, Stefanie Reher & I explore this ❓ using survey exp's in 🇺🇸🇩🇪🇬🇧 🧵 tinyurl.com/mr2jcvzd

"How far into the future a policy is expected to pay off matters a lot less to voters than how big that payoff will be. The sooner the better, but much more so, the bigger the better." Crucial research finding from our Queen Mary Politics and IR colleague Matthew Barnfield theconversation.com/evidence-tells…

Last week, I successfully defended my doctoral thesis at UC3M and am thrilled to announce that I'm [finally] a doctor (!) with cum laude🎓🥳Immense thanks to my three examiners (Marta Cantijoch, Homero Gil de Zúñiga, and Alberto Ardèvol-Abreu) for their insightful feedback and engaging discussion. (1/5)

My Queen Mary Politics and IR colleague Matthew Barnfield's piece on voters' time horizons seems even more relevant today in the light of the briefing we've heard this morning around Keir Starmer's short-term pain/long-term gain schtick! theconversation.com/evidence-tells… via The Conversation

@colm_m Matthew Barnfield Great piece. Trouble is Labour aren't really being long-termist either, just hoping short term pain delivers med-term confidence, while neglecting the investment that would actually help in the long term. Middle-distance politics over both short and long term gains

🚨 New paper with Matthew Barnfield doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/… "Voters Share Polls That Say What They Want to Hear" was published last week International Journal of Public Opinion Research. TL; DR: people are more likely to share polls on social media if their preferred party is in the lead.